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when will the war start ?


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#1 scruffy1

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 11:45 AM

so, with all the posturing, and the face off between the two worst hair styles in the northern hemisphere, nay, the world, what better place than on an atomic forum to predict who blinks first ?

 

 

technically, that would seem to be more likely trump, as his comb over is far more inclined to blow into his eyes than kim's bob

 

i looked for the thread where i predicted this, and sure enough, back in march i wrote:

 

personally, my view is that trump's current plan is to start ww3 noting that america has historically always done well after world wars, and less so after lesser incursions - so first he reigns in money from foreign aid, because he doesn't want to assist foreigners spending it on defending themselves from his expansion

the "sensible" thing to do would be take on north korea, and after "success" there he will have a foothold to invade china, with the added bonus that kim jong-un may well sling his tactical nukes on the nearest obvious targets before they go down, taking the manufacturing giants of korea and japan out ofthe market, freeing up space for the 'mericans in what might be left

you heard it here first, only a month from april fools' day... i got malcolm turnbull's career path ascendancy accurately predicted over a decade before he got up, including knifing the incumbent before that was even the standard australian political promotion mechanism

 

there's not room on the planet for two leaders with the worst hair style

 

 

hope i'm wrong, but somewhat unsettlingly,  my middle name is nostradamus...

 

 

i have seen the future, and we're all dead


Edited by scruffy1, 12 August 2017 - 11:46 AM.

ummmmmmmmmmm............


#2 chrisg

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 01:52 PM

Well, in the sense of a war of words it has already begun, however if a shooting war starts it will be over in minutes,  the USN will not mess around and you can bet at least one, probably two super-quiet Ohio Class SLBM boats are in the near vicinity of NK.

 

I'm unconvinced that it will come to that though, so are contacts in SK including the family of the wife of one of my nephews.

 

What I'd like to see is civil war in NK - the people must be tired of the dynasty by now surely ?

 

Cheers


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#3 Rybags

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 02:18 PM

They're probably brainwashed to the point of thinking everyone else on the planet lives like the scavengers at Philipino rubbish dumps, and that they're in the lap of luxury.

 

I imagine the most formidable weapon available to the average citizen is probably a pitchfork - not much use in an uprising against an army that probably has 5 million guns in the weapons cabinet.



#4 twinair

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 02:27 PM

it will be over in minutes,  the USN will not mess around.

 

 

 

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Doubt it.

The way I see it is this, and I am not a decorated war hero such as yourself, Chris.

Kim Jong-Whacko is threatening the US and waving his nuclear dicks in the air with absolutely no intention of throwing the first punch. He knows that if provoked far enough it will be the yanks who will fire first. However, if the yanks fire first they want to destroy all of their nuclear installations. How do they propose that will happen? Sure, they might destroy 90% of them , but all Mr Whacko needs is a few left, then he will just lob one over to South Korea, or Japan. He will have more than one, though. So he will be able to start chucking them in all directions. He will only do this if America throws the first punch. Which Donald really, really REALLY wants to do. Hopefully there are some smart people in the background telling him not to.
Either way, this will not be over in a couple of minutes. NK are praying that the yanks shoot first. 

 


 

 

What I'd like to see is civil war in NK - the people must be tired of the dynasty by now surely ?

 

Cheers

 

This won't happen. You know as well as I do that the propaganda machine in NK has been going full steam ahead for decades against the US. The NK Government have been telling their people for YEARS that America is bad. Now all they have to do is show footage and recordings of the things Trump has been saying recently and it's a simple matter of "See! We told you so! Look what he is saying about us!"

That in itself is putting the NK people further and further into his pocket. Juts the way he likes it.

Same as the way America instills fear into its people so that the Government gets the support and backing it needs from those people.



I suspect nothing at all will happen. No wars. Nothing.
It'll just end up like India and Pakistan. We know they have nukes, and we just have to accept the fact and live with them.
 


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#5 eveln

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 02:46 PM


I suspect nothing at all will happen. No wars. Nothing.
.

Arch Duke Ferdinand comes to mind ...


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#6 Rybags

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 02:54 PM

They're still at prototyping stage with their missiles and explosive devices so I think it'd be a long time before they could just start lobbing them everywhere.

But the other worry is, all they need to do is put a bomb on a 30 foot boat, it could easily enough sneak to anywhere within fallout distance of it's enemies.



#7 Jeruselem

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 02:56 PM

I suspect there already nuclear armed us subs in the area of north Korea already. The us surface fleet will be the visible threat but the subs will be ones to fire the nukes.

Edited by Jeruselem, 12 August 2017 - 02:57 PM.

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#8 chrisg

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Posted 12 August 2017 - 03:17 PM

Hmm,

 

I think you sort of said the same thing as me Twinny, I don't think anything will happen either but the NK nuclear resources are actually rather concentrated and there is a very simple way to ensure a 100% launch failure if your direct shots don't get them all. One or two high altitude EMP bursts and comms in the country goes to hell in a hand-basket and launching becomes impossible.

 

It's one of the realities of nuclear war theory and why missile submarines are a better bet to have surviving weaponry. It's also why the U.S. and the U.K. I don't know about France, and completely certain with Israel that they maintain valve based systems that are relatively immune to EMP, but they also shield very heavily against EMP in the first place. There is no evidence that NK has taken any such measures.

 

Civil uprising have succeeded with nothing much more than pitchforks and kitchen knives in the past Ry, simply because every time you manage to defeat an armed soldier, which can be costly in terms of lives initially, you get a gun or two.

 

It does totally depend upon how brainwashed they have been across several generations of course but SK does spend a lot of time and effort broadcasting their own propaganda into NK and routinely jams their radio networks - there is damn all TV in NK.

 

Will any of it happen though?

 

I doubt it, it is more likely Trump will be removed from office with moves already afoot to do just that.

 

Cheers


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#9 rs727

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 10:13 AM

Apparently it will be October... at least according to some random article about a fortune teller that predicted it.

 

So enjoy the next few months guys! :P



#10 Mac Dude

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 10:53 AM

it wont.
Karl Kruszelnicki - No, I’m fully prepared to believe in the “Church of God the Utterly Indifferent who sets the universe going and says you’re on your own kids.

#11 Jeruselem

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 11:55 AM

There must be some worries republicans with the loose cannon in the white house. They'd prefer if the president didn't declare war via twitter.

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#12 chrisg

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 04:23 PM

Heh,

 

The Twit on twitter... :)

 

I just finished a chat, well back and forth mail with a friend at the Pentagon, they don't like Trump much that is for sure. Not really much concern there though, apparently Defcon4 but that is as much because of Syria and ISIS as NK.

 

He agreed with me, their current analysis of NK missile launches says they could not hit a barn let alone the barn door. They also do not think their current IRBMs could carry one of their nukes - the claim of miniaturisation is a lie in other words.

 

That's not to say they could not get there but they are not getting any help in doing so.

 

What has the guys at the big house shaking their heads is that the situation is leading to closer relations with Russia and China, both of whom think both Trump and Kim are nutcases.

 

(Mind you Beijing thinks Putin is as well and the Big House guys agree.)

 

Nice to be living on a planet being led by idiots - not...

 

Cheers


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#13 Cybes

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 07:56 PM

... they could not hit a barn let alone the barn door. They also do not think their current IRBMs could carry one of their nukes - the claim of miniaturisation is a lie in other words.

 

Hope he's right, because you don't need to hit the door with a nuke.  Anywhere within 50 miles will be enough to ruin your day.


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#14 chrisg

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 12:54 AM

Heh,

 

The Twit on twitter... :)

 

I just finished a chat, well back and forth mail with a friend at the Pentagon, they don't like Trump much that is for sure. Not really much concern there though, apparently Defcon4 but that is as much because of Syria and ISIS as NK.

 

He agreed with me, their current analysis of NK missile launches says they could not hit a barn let alone the barn door. They also do not think their current IRBMs could carry one of their nukes - the claim of miniaturisation is a lie in other words.

 

That's not to say they could not get there but they are not getting any help in doing so.

 

What has the guys at the big house shaking their heads is that the situation is leading to closer relations with Russia and China, both of whom think both Trump and Kim are nutcases.

 

(Mind you Beijing thinks Putin is as well and the Big House guys agree.)

 

Nice to be living on a planet being led by idiots - not...

 

Cheers

Hmm,

 

Depends, a ground strike would be less, an airburst up to that distance sure, but there is no evidence to say NK can even do an airburst, it's reasonably simple, both Hiroshima and Nagasaki where air detonations but we are talking about the country that has trouble keeping the lights on...

 

Dunno, there are now at least four, quite possibly more, ABM capable systems surrounding NK, two deployments of THAAD and at least two USN assets suitably equipped, probably more.

 

I can tend to be a little in-your-face with idiots like Kim - should have knocked down one of the earlier launches as a not very subtle demonstration, but, we'll see.

 

Cheers


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#15 Jeruselem

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 08:37 AM

China has imposed trade sanctions on north Korea, which is like 90% of nk trade.

Edited by Jeruselem, 15 August 2017 - 08:52 AM.

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#16 chrisg

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 11:13 AM

China has imposed trade sanctions on north Korea, which is like 90% of nk trade.

Hmm,

 

NK has some pretty good mineral resources but is useless at feeding itself.

 

China has other ways to source the minerals but does a pretty good job of keeping food on the table, some of which they export - even we get some.

 

A not very subtle way of telling Kim idiot to pull his head in, but the current leadership in Beijing is not as subtle as previous ones.

 

I'm not sure if it goes a step towards defusing the situation or just infuriates Kim to start making threats to his only real trading partner.

 

We will have to wait and see...

 

Cheers


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#17 Cybes

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 11:50 AM

... infuriates Kim to start making threats to his only real trading partner.

 

Oh, please!  Please do that, Kim!  I'll get the popcorn.

 

The (human) world isn't going to make it to the 22nd century anyway - might as well send it off with fireworks. ;p


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#18 chrisg

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:43 PM

 

... infuriates Kim to start making threats to his only real trading partner.

 

Oh, please!  Please do that, Kim!  I'll get the popcorn.

 

The (human) world isn't going to make it to the 22nd century anyway - might as well send it off with fireworks. ;p

 

:)

 

Pessimist :)

 

Half a dozen bullets could change our course entirely, or just let the old morons drop off the perch - mind you, I'm not too sure the millennials are going to be much use at steering the planet in a better direction...

 

Cheers


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#19 Jeruselem

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 12:49 PM

 

China has imposed trade sanctions on north Korea, which is like 90% of nk trade.

Hmm,

 

NK has some pretty good mineral resources but is useless at feeding itself.

 

China has other ways to source the minerals but does a pretty good job of keeping food on the table, some of which they export - even we get some.

 

A not very subtle way of telling Kim idiot to pull his head in, but the current leadership in Beijing is not as subtle as previous ones.

 

I'm not sure if it goes a step towards defusing the situation or just infuriates Kim to start making threats to his only real trading partner.

 

We will have to wait and see...

 

Cheers

 

 

Most of NK is like farmland which is even more funny.


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#20 Cybes

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 02:38 PM

Pessimist :)

 

Half a dozen bullets could change our course entirely, or just let the old morons drop off the perch - mind you, I'm not too sure the millennials are going to be much use at steering the planet in a better direction...

 

As to the first, maybe.  About humanity, certainly, but generally far from it.

 

For the second, no, it's really much, much worse than that.  Things have been set in motion now that will require sustained and concerted effort to halt, let alone reverse - efforts which will severely impact oligarchs world wide.  It's not going to happen.


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