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chrisg

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Everything posted by chrisg

  1. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Yes, I just read of he missile strike. Let's keep it simple, thus far the US has deployed all the quick reaction units it can, mostly as a knee jerk because Trump's action caught them off guard. Secondary units have stepped up and called in those on leave ready to deploy but it is never that simple when you are wanting to move a significant force half way around the world and particularly to an arid region like the ME. First you need logistics and that starts with food and water neither of which is insignificant when you start talking lots of people. That part is buried in the noise but whilst the QRA folks can be self sufficient for several days without resupply the loggies need to synch the arrival of their supplies with the arrival of troops. That's not a bad thing, it is giving the air force a breather to ensure they have maintained aircraft ready to go and meanwhile ships are making ready to sail. Next you need actual war material and that is heavy stuff that whilst you can top up by air you cannot get enough there, even a C-5 can only realistically carry a couple of Abrams tanks. So it has to go by sea and it has to get to ports. There are some stockpiles in the region but if it does quickly devolve to a shooting war and the logistics guys will always operate on worst case scenario then those will be exhausted quickly. So whilst the Americans really are the masters of logistics they need time to fill the supply chain and that is why the RDF guys have been put in first, to buy time. In the end as the old saying goes an army marches on its stomach but it fights with its weapons, both are needed. No one as yet is suggesting an invasion but it is rather important to have the ability to actually do so if you want to counter aggression from Iran, which it seems is already commencing. So far the only other forward basing that I have seen is B-52s streaming into Diego Garcia. I really hope they are not needed, they are getting a bit thin on the ground and they were obsolete in Vietnam but the reality is that they endure whilst the B-1's courtesy of Syria in particular but also Afghanistan are rapidly aging out, not too many flight hours left on the fleet and the B-2 fleet is tiny. So it's a fast moving, fluid situation that the Pentagon is moving as fast as it can to address. Thanks Mr President for giving us warning... Cheers
  2. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Hardly: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/07/military-units-deploy-amid-iran-tensions-heres-what-those-left-behind-are-doing.html In answer to your questions posted whilst I was writing and reading exercising about as much patience as I have available. Cheers
  3. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    I do keep reminding you that this is not about me but you keep resorting to very Trumpian insults when you really don't have much backing you. Trump has zero military experience, he went out of his way to actively avoid it. The 82nd isn't the only division called up but what is different about them is that as a general rule they get sent somewhere to do something ie. Grenada, Panama, the Gulf - so the question is why they have been sent first or has their role been adjusted ? To simply reinforce the Embassy it is more usual to send Marines which in the first instance they did from Italy. Actually the Iraqi vote was unanimous, by all present, I was simply not aware that there were absentees. It does now appear that Soleimani was actually on his way to visit with the Iraqi Prime Minister which makes it even worse. You are utterly correct, in this instance I am getting most all of my information from a variety of news items and associated sources, as I stated some posts back. Just how much of the geopolitical situation you actually understand is speculative it is most certainly prejudiced by an Israeli slant. However since it seems that all you want to do is insult me at every turn it is time for me to bow out before I start throwing insults back. Cheers
  4. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    No, the administration is a joke headed by a clown who can't lie straight in bed who sails off on bizarre rants about windmills, toilets and land purchases like Greenland. He is forever making grandiose claims either about himself or how wonderful his presidency has been when reality tells a very different story. I was not aware of the exact voting in the Iraqi parliament but I do agree that it is in caretaker mode, regardless it reflects a mood within the country that is for America to leave. It somewhat bemuses me why they are even still there, they are patently not welcome and still lose troops to death and injury regularly. Afghanistan is and always has been ridiculous, it is not a country where invaders ever win wars, the best anyone can do with the place is throttle the export of opium and divert as much as possible to morphine production. We'll probably end up with too much morphine but that is better than too much heroin. Do-gooders have been trying to tame the place for centuries, America is just the latest to fail. Cheers
  5. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    That's a matter of opinion... He has not succeeded in any of his bold claims to get out of anywhere. The coalition remains bogged down in Afghanistan, embroiled in Syria, has 5,000 troops in Iraq and right now that "yet" looks like just a matter of time. The first is plain stupid, even Russia had the good sense to simply pull out and stop wasting lives, Syria he obviously does not have a clue on and Iraq he has now so angered them with this foolish assassination that they unanimously vote to ask America to leave then some clod releases a "draft' that suggests they are going to leave that then he and his not terribly bright JCS have to scrabble around making awkward retractions over. The entire administration has been and remains nothing but a joke, one in very bad taste. Cheers
  6. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Since when was there anything simple about impeachment ? It was not designed to be easy, it was designed to be thorough. I utterly agree the Dems are very sub par, but they are nowhere near the depths Trump has descended to. There is not much chance of a truly impressive President for the next term but Trump will simply take us into another round of war, for all his claims... All that he is doing right now is what he has always done - survive at the expense of others - just the odds keep getting bigger. Cheers
  7. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Glad you found it funny Cheers
  8. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    I'm not relying on it at all, just suggesting that the are other perspectives. Btw, I have never been a spy, you have me confused with someone else The IAEA/IEA, sort of interchangeable, are not infallible but they are the frontline in keeping proliferation in check. It's rather frustrating isn't it ? There is a state one-step removed from Israel that has a continuous history similar to Israel apart from in historical terms a disruption that was for a brief period perfectly ok with the existence of Israel and now is not because nutcases are in charge there. Most anything that anyone can do will only make it worse - ideas thrive on adversity but the Iranians are not stupid, if not pressured and that unfortunately is what America is currently doing, I rather think they will find a sensible path. They most certainly are not on one at the moment. Patience does have its virtues. Cheers
  9. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Heh, Not going to happen - difficult in the first place but given how many times Trump has lied you'd need to destroy a forest to get enough paper for all the documents. Basically any action to sue under parliamentary privilige is so difficult that it is simply not worth pursing not even for a sue-happy creature like Trump. It is tempting to wonder if Trump has ever read the Constitution or whether the long words were too much for him or whether he wipes his fat arse with it but Nacy Pelosi has read and understands the Consitution. There is no time limit of note on when she has to send the articles to Senate and her defense courtesy of Idiot Mitch is solid. At the moment there is no way any trial in the Senate would be fair- everyone knows that. She only has to hold the line and, given his progressively more erratic acts, wait to see if his support in the Senate wavers. It would be an interesting conundrum to sue or attempt to sue Trump, he's been libeling and slandering his opponents at every pass for over three years and that even includes those nominally in his party. Open that floodgate and we'd wash him out to sea but it just does not happen in the fairy land of politics otherwise the writs would be continuous - even they are not that stupid. Currently the State of New York is siting on several significant writs against Trump that courtesy of Executive Privilige they have not enacted and will not until he is out of office. No wonder he is so keen to win this year, if he doesn't and I fully agree the Dems are not exactly firing on all cylinders, he will be embroiled in suits for years and either die or end up in jail. Given the number of persons loyal to him whom he has thrown under the bus and who ARE in jail I rather hope it is the latter - dying is too good for him. Cheers
  10. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Either way you are correct Cheers
  11. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Heh, Like an other professional journal it would be peer review.The main contributors are in fact Atomic Scientists but over time they have expanded their brief to include broader concerns such as biochem warfare and climate change. That's not actually what his article says at all, he simply says that Iran has not in any way impeded the IAEC inspectors - ever. Cheers
  12. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    And ? They are not saying "we publish anything " they vet for credibility. I've been receiving the newsletter for a very long time, never seen any reason to disbelieve what they publish, disagree sometimes or wonder if they have not gone a bit to far but that is common in reading most anything. In the end you have to, at least to some degree, trust what other people tell you, the IAEC in particular does a rather thankless, very demanding job with a pretty high burn-out rate. However they rarely miss much, especially when it is a possibly suspect installation which would be the way Iran would have to be categorised. My point really is that whilst some of the things Iran does are an anathema their nuclear programme does still seem to be on the level. Their missiles on the other hand are a very real concern and I would not put it past them to for example use them in an area-denial manner. An air-bust of some nasty radioactive material over any of the airbases within range, which is most all of the ones that matter, would not be nice at all to clean up. Nothing suggests that they might be thinking that way but at the top of the theocracy you are not exactly dealing with level-headed people. Cheers
  13. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    I think the point is more that he is an expert on Iran who also happens to write for the Bulletin suggesting he is somewhat more than a lay person. Cheers
  14. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Funny how any organisation that does not publish what you want to hear is of no consequence. This is the bio of the author of the article on the Iranian inspections that appeared this week: https://thebulletin.org/biography/abbas-milani/ I think there's a reasonable chance he might know what he is talking about. By contrast the Iranians seem to be behaving themselves quite well in nuclear terms, unlike the Iraqis who drove the investigators to distraction and of course eventually led to the Israelis bombing the reactor. Obviously there are never any guarantees but they are a signatory on the Non-proliferation treaty in fact they have had a nuclear programme since the 50's. I'd tend to believe that if they wanted a bomb they could well and truly have had one by now. In the reign of the Shah the intent was to build a number of reactors and get themselves away from any dependence upon oil. That plan seems to have persisted although it was slowed considerably by damage done to the original reactor in the Iran-Iraq war. Nuclear programmes always seem to end up with those who have one wanting everyone else not to have one. It is without a doubt that Israel has long had a reactor at Dimona and they neither confirm nor deny that they have nuclear weapons but no one ever seems to worry about that despite the probability that they actually tested one way back down in the South Atlantic. There are perfectly sensible reasons for having a reactor even if you do not use it to generate power or produce nuclear fuel. For example Australia has one at Lucas Heights to produce isotopes for nuclear medicine. No one complains about that either despite the fact that the handling of waste there has been the subject of several quite damning investigations. I'd be far more concerned if the Iranians were being deceptive about regular examinations but such does not seem to be the case. About the only reason to be concerned is that they have buried their refining cyclotrons rather deep but unless they are hiding facilities, very difficult to do, I seriously doubt they are in any way close to developing a bomb however they most certainly do have some dangerous amounts of refined uranium. Contrariwise the Ayatollahs do regularly make nuclear type threats against Israel which thus far does seem to be typical hot air. In short they do appear to be toeing the line, however if they keep on being suspected then they might just shrug and decide if everyone thinks they are they might as well. It's hardly the same dangerous situation that persists in North Korea which really is a case of Trump being played for a fool. Cheers
  15. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    It's not within the mandate of the IAEC to examine anything non-nuclear so of course they cannot go inspecting missile development facilities any more than Israel lets anyone look at their Jericho manufacturing facilities. The intent of the inspections is to assure the IEAC that nuclear weapons are not being developed. The manner in which Iran has been behaving in regard to nuclear matters since Trump abandoned the agreement would imply they are hell-bent on developin nuclear weapons. From the reports for the Bulletin of Atomic scientists it would definitely not seem to be the case at all. Cheers
  16. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Seems it remains a dispute in your mind. It is very clear, Impeachment means "charged" not convicted. The House of Reps has prepared and accepted by popular vote the articles of impeachment. At that point the idiot McConnell declared he would work with the White House and pretty much ensure that the articles would be dismissed in the Senate. In doing so he has basically said there will be no fair trial, in other words the jury is biased . That is not the way the process of law operates. Accordingly Pelosi is with-holding the articles until she is given an assurance of a fair trial, which she is perfectly entitled to do. It is of course all a farce but regardless Trump is impeached, that is he has been charged by the House of Representatives. that impeachment will remain on his record for all time, which is what has enraged the man so much, because in his mind he can do no wrong. Cheers
  17. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Depends upon what you regard as credible - latest to turn up today was The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, their contributors don't have much time for Trump and strongly suspect the kill decision was influenced by providing distraction from the impeachment proceedings. They also pointed out that whilst Iran has progressively drawn away from the nuclear agreement they have not actually done much in terms of weapons development and the IAEC inspectors are still welcome. Yesterday among others it was The Aviationist which keeps a pretty close eye on US aircraft movements in particular. If you mean do I watch Fox News, no, not even for shits and giggles. Quite correct Leo, I doubt any of my sources are particularly obscure and anyone can subscribe to the two I just listed. When it comes to US media it's a curates egg, the NYT doesn't like Trump, nor does the WSJ but I do regard their reporting as being credible. Not always so confident about CNN. It is pointless quoting sources, but it was interesting to note today that Bolton has offered to testify at the Impeachment proceedings, he's a hawk, but even he did not agree with Trump applying pressure via funding on Ukraine. Now the Senate Republicans have to decide, is the trial going to be a transparent white-wash or will it proceed along impartial lines ? The RDF and various other SF operators are pretty much in theatre now, but further call ups continue. What is not clear yet is just who went to beef up the Baghdad Embassy. Cheers
  18. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Hmm, My info is coming from a mix of sources. Flightradar24, although not all of the traffic will be visible there, depends if the aircraft enable ADS B or not, Mil traffic that does not want to be seen turns it off, regular updates from Aviationist are also useful. Then there are just regular News feeds and military.com and lastly input from people I know. A patchwork quilt that builds up a picture. It seems a war of words has now begun on Trump's favorite medium, Twitter. There are a number of tweets from several senior Iranian officials with some very broad hints at attacks on Trump properties, notably Trump Tower in NYC and Mar A Lago. Those could well be mis-direction but that can't be assumed so somehow they will have to be protected. The whole situation is, among other things, turning into a security nightmare. Also a waiting game, although I doubt there will be much waiting, Iran is demonstrably seething. It's been interesting to hear that whilst Suleimani was definitely behind many, although probably not all of the attacks on America the past few years he was also apparently no fan of ISIS and had been directing attacks against them as well. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" seems to apply. Most every news feed from America is also strongly associating the hit with the impeachment some more accusing than others. Well, as I keep saying, we have to wait and see. Cheers
  19. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    No Leo, that traffic has been running for over 48 hours now and is a mix of deployments to Baghdad with SF, to Kuwait city and to various other European ports that can take them. Sure the RDF went first, but it is not just them. Dunno where you are getting your info from but it is very out of date. I'm tired of this, going to bed, if you are right, then you are right, we'll see in short order, nothing you or I can do about it. Just why the hell I would bother to lie when the truth will out very quickly I have no idea. Cheers
  20. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    It never happens that way - as soon as the body bags start shipping America wonders why they are fighting for nothing. The current status is not logical, the beginnings of wars rarely are. Personally i'm going to bed, we'll see how accurate my analysis is in a few hours and the enduing days. I really am tired of saying it but I really do hope that i'm wrong. Cheers
  21. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Iran is there, they do not have to deploy. Currently the US is streaming C-5s and C-17s at a rate that the maintenance schedule for those aircraft in peace-time cannot sustain, if that is not chaotic I do not know what is. You don't need to believe me, check it on flightradar 24 - hell earlier today they surged the only aircraft they have that is certified to transport ebola patients to the US - why I have no idea- speaks to covering every base. Wishful thinking does not make it real. Cheers
  22. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    I've never really claimed any. Not in the Mil world anyway, I just told stories of things that happened a very long time ago. Different world but it also percolates into the present via the time servers. I really am getting tired of saying I really do not care what you bottom dwellers want to believe - I let my credibility speak from what I comment upon that comes to pass. At the moment we are waiting to see what comes out of the ME chaos - I'd be perfectly happy if Leo were right - trouble is he's not, his analysis is fucked. We shall see... Cheers ( Oh btw, you personify the classic bad news Australian - never see much good in much. )
  23. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    That's probably Washington buck passing - hard to know. No Leo, I can happily believe that they had plans for such a contingency, they have plans for most everything, that does not equate to having troops in position let alone materiel. It's panic-city within the US Mil right now, doubtless organised but still decidedly chaotic. Even with fast ships, which have to be positioned and loaded, they are looking at weeks to get a credible force into position. The best bet they have on their side right now is that Iran stays asymmetric and defends its sites of note. I have no idea how many drones the US can deploy but at the moment that would be their best threat, except Iran has already demonstrated ability to knock them down. Drones in the main are fragile things, they will not last long against even obsolete SA-2s et al. In the main the US does not overfly Iran with them, they know they are vulnerable, they rely on side-scan. i'm pretty certain they have some newer more capable ones but they do not have them in quantity. Cheers Um, Hands up how many mil types still post on this site.... It's been quite a long time, and we are not involved in my creds, you are just doing a Trump again Leo, attacking the man because you cannot defend the evidence. I am getting tired of saying - it will play out, and I hope I'm wrong. Cheers
  24. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    Heh. He is, laughably "Commander in Chief." A Commander needs to have respect for the abilities of those he is a Commander of - this moron does not even know what he is the Commander of. I do not think the military gave this option, it was political - quite possibly Bolton, he's an utter warmonger even if supposedly out of the loop. Getting time to hide the football.... Cheers
  25. chrisg

    Trump: The third POTUS ever to be Impeached

    There has been a rapid mobilisation of troops and tankers operating as a continuous airbridge out of Georgia and surrounding States for 48 no, make that 72 hours now, you can track it on Flightradar24 if you like. It was not happening before, not been seen for years. Draw your own conclusions. Cheers I'd hope so, I'm talking facts. Not sure what he's talking. Cheers
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