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Samsung Gives Blu-ray 5 Years

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http://www.techpowerup.com/70849/Blu-ray_h...ys_Samsung.html

 

According to Andy Griffins who is Director of Consumer Electronics at Samsung UK who states " think it [blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10"

 

This is one persons opinion and or prediction.

 

Well i think we had DVD's for longer than 5 years... But is he right? With Downloadable movies and Foxtel and Media PC's on the landscape?

 

I say...... maybe.....maybe not.

 

What do you think?

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Meh. Predictions are for suckers. In this game, it really is impossible to tell what will happen 5, 10, 20 years down the track and only an idiot would try.

 

That said, I predict that BDs will still be with us 6 years from now.

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Depends if there's a technology fast on it's heels.

 

The sales and availability of Blu Ray has been pretty abysmal in comparison to DVD, but then when DVD came out the same was true in comparison to VHS.

 

But then since the majority of people don't have good enough TVs for Bluray (and barely good enough for DVD).

 

*shrug*

 

Personally I'm not a fan of Bluray. Mostly because I own thousands of DVDs, and even though I technically recognise there's no way they'll be worth anything in 10 years, I still don't like it!

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...we'll see.

 

z

Aww doood. I'm sure you of all people have more insight than that! :)

 

 

On the data storage front I'm sure they'll be big on the up take. Already starting to burn all my stuff to Blu Rays, awesome to not have to burn 10 DVDs to clear up some drive space, just do one BDR. Though it does take ages to burn :P but that'll get better with time.

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I think that digital delivery of media is going to be more and more common in the near future - by DD, i mean by wire.

 

 

But the fact of the matter is, there aren't many places, america included, that have the data bandwidth available to be able to deliver HD content to houses across the nation, in volume.

 

 

Yes, that IS changing... we're getting more and more bandwidth, but the fact is, infrastructure has to be tested, piloted, deployed, tested, and finally released.... Is that going to happen in 5 years, country wide, either here, or in america? Unlikely. Chances are it'll take about 10... cos once you've done that process, you also need to do the marketing for the new services, you need to get the buyers in, and it needs to be profitable for the companies providing the service.....

 

 

It all takes time. I don't think we'll see any significant changes in media delivery for another 10 years....

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Blu-ray failed becasue of the war with hd-dvd.

 

Also i think backwards compatibility worked against them.

 

When dvd started comign out people were forced to buy the new player dvds physically looked better than dvds, they were smaller shiny and just looked cool, also the bonus features helped.

 

If i was going to make a new format to replace dvds, I'd make the disks smaller and use multiple layers to keep capasity as a good level) and maybe incase them like some dvd-ram disks. something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mini-DV...with_Holder.jpg would be kinda cool.

 

Market them as completly scrach resistant (unlike dvd) and sell them in smaller packages so people can see the benifit of saving space.

Personally I have trouble displaying all my dvds on my shelves, If the disks were the size of say the psp umd disks then it would be alot more manageable.

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Aww doood. I'm sure you of all people have more insight than that! :)

 

 

On the data storage front I'm sure they'll be big on the up take. Already starting to burn all my stuff to Blu Rays, awesome to not have to burn 10 DVDs to clear up some drive space, just do one BDR. Though it does take ages to burn :P but that'll get better with time.

Surely you could just buy another hard drive for what a pack of Blu-Ray writables would cost? Not to mention the cost of the Blu-Ray burner!

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...we'll see.

 

z

Aww doood. I'm sure you of all people have more insight than that! :)

 

Sure, I do...but the last time I opened my mouth, I was single handedly accused of "Destroying HD-DVD in the Asia Pacific as a result of such comments", so these days, I watch from a afar, make things happen - and many months later, you, the consumers, benefit.

 

 

z

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...we'll see.

 

z

Aww doood. I'm sure you of all people have more insight than that! :)

 

Sure, I do...but the last time I opened my mouth, I was single handedly accused of "Destroying HD-DVD in the Asia Pacific as a result of such comments", so these days, I watch from a afar, make things happen - and many months later, you, the consumers, benefit.

 

 

z

 

Wow, that is pretty intense to be dropped on you.

 

Guess that goes to show we should listen when you - well - what ever zebra's do!

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Surely you could just buy another hard drive for what a pack of Blu-Ray writables would cost? Not to mention the cost of the Blu-Ray burner!

At the moment maybe, but it's early adopters like myself that help make these things cheaper for you in the long run. In a year or two you won't be asking that question.

 

@ zeb - Fair enough, I knew you're a big part of the industry but to have that kind of influence on things is pretty scary but cool all at once. Zeb killed HD-DVD in asia pacific! :O

;)

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Depends if there's a technology fast on it's heels.

This.

 

Blu Ray has a better chance now that it's battle with HD DVD is over. What will drive it now is availability of content, and cost of readers/writers. Content is on the increase and hardware is on the decrease, so this is good. And, HD TV's are dropping in price and becoming more popular, so I see these things working in its favor.

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i still don't see why the disks for computer storage and the disk for movie content need to be the same, they wouldn't need to worry about drm if they weren't cross compatible

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It will depend mostly not on the tech but on people and what habits will be 10 years from now.

 

Will people still want discrete units of "movie" to catalogue and keep on their bookshelves? Or will they be happy browsing ethereal pictures and sound originating several thousand kms away?

 

As for data storage - dual-layer DVDs are still several dollars each, and that tech has been in the consumer space for plenty of time. I don't see BRD as a viable alternative to flash and HDDs.

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Yeah, the ever increasing capacity and speed of flash is certainly something that needs to be taken into account.

 

Not so much with HDDs, as they're not as portable as BD-R or Flash. Sure, a BD-R in it's case isn't much smaller than a HDD, but it IS less likely to be damaged, unlike a HDD, with static worries etc.

 

 

Flash should really be seen as the big killer for transportable media, even if not for a B2C business model.

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I wasn't really huge on the idea of starting a DVD library, but with Blu-Ray it seems much more worthwhile considering the dramatically increased video and audio quality.

 

I'm hoping that Blu-Ray will become relatively popular and continue to be supported 5 years into the future and a bit beyond that, but one thing that concerns me is the number of published Blu-Ray films.

 

Considering how quickly VHS tapes deteriorated compared to DVDs, I'm guessing that was one of many reasons so many films, TV shows etc were published in the DVD format. The jump from DVD to Blu-Ray is of quality and not really of improved lifespan, which I think will result in new films being published as Blu-Ray, rather than studios going through their entire back catalogue. It's probably financially prohibitive for them to go and put a whole bunch of forgotten films on Blu-Ray anyway, knowing that most people would have those ones on DVD already.

 

Maybe that is where flash or other storage methods will come in, as I am sure it would probably cost less to write a whole bunch of random films and whatnot to flash and distribute them than it would to print, label and distribute the same stuff on Blu-Ray.

 

I think I made a point in there somewhere, but I'm quite certain the majority of my post was just rambling.

 

In summary (kind of) - I hope Blu-Ray is still around in 5 years, and I reckon it will be, but I don't think it's going to become nearly as popular as DVD nor have the same catalogue of films/TV shows etc available. Digital content delivery is a given, but currently not my preferred method of purchasing and acquiring media.

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The article says "Griffins believes that 2008 is the year of the Blu-ray, where consumers embrace the format by purchasing necessary appliances."

 

2008 is the year of the Blu-ray? What is he smoking?

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