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Kimmo

So... how long do you give it?

It'll all end in tears in...  

28 members have voted

  1. 1. ...how many years?

    • 5
      7
    • 10
      1
    • 15
      5
    • 20
      3
    • 30
      4
    • 50
      3
    • 100
      2
    • I'm with Malthus
      0
    • We get responsible (impossible, and time's up anyway)
      3
  2. 2. It'll be obvious

    • next year
      6
    • in two years
      0
    • three
      3
    • five
      6
    • in a decade
      5
    • within twenty years
      4
    • Idiocracy-style media will sufficiently opiate the masses, wholl be too stupid to notice
      4


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I'm with Tantryl on this, and am very much enjoying the irrational responses to his posts. I voted with the poll options that were contradictory and senseless...

Edited by freck

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It might all appear doom and gloom, but as long water & agriculture doesn't completely fail us, I think an economic system can always work.

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I should clarify what I said before. We've never had it so good, I'm sure the Generation before me said the same thing and the generation before me said the exact same thing again.

 

Just as I'm sure my Son's generation will say the exact same thing when he's my age. In terms of resources / technology, we've never been smarter about it, in 20 years I can only imagine how much smarter we'll be. So no, I'm not worried at all.

 

And what if I'm wrong, what can I do about it? Should I stress can make predictions about how the world will grind to a halt and fall in to anarchy? I'll deal with that if it happens as will all of us (we won't have a choice on the matter). If I wanted to have fear bestowed upon me I would've watched prime time media.

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India - plays a careful game, no, doesn't like China much but has a reasonable alliance with both the West and Russia.

Cheers

 

Except for the fact of their little Paki nuke problem on the border.

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Back in the early Atomic days when we did fun polls on the home page, we did one just like this, along the lines of "how long do you think humankind will last?"

 

The answers were something like 10, 50, 100, 500 years and a last option for "forever".

 

By far the big result was 50 years. That was ten years ago, so, I think pessimism is entrenched with the scientifically-informed lot that hang about here. And that was before Fox News became completely evil, leading Americans to embrace war, hate, isolationism and fundamentalism :}

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Tell anyone who went through the spanish flu ,great depression and the world wars that you think we're living bad/end times and they'd literally slap you.

 

Perspective!!

 

Bay of pigs man...

 

Mankind was literally minutes away from extinguishing all life as we know it. We have it better than almost any time modern history.

 

Little real threat of nuclear war, relative world peace, decent living standards for people.

 

The only real threat we have is that the uber rich might not have as much shit anymore, and they're making you worried about it.....

 

fuck em

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The hit a wall thing is a fantasy that requires a perfect storm of stupid events.

I wish you dreaming optimists would stop calling the inevitable, obvious, nightmare forecast a fucking fantasy.
So you think my prediction of hundreds of years of things getting worse followed by millenia of turmoil is optimistic?

 

OK then.

 

Back in the early Atomic days when we did fun polls on the home page, we did one just like this, along the lines of "how long do you think humankind will last?"

 

The answers were something like 10, 50, 100, 500 years and a last option for "forever".

 

By far the big result was 50 years. That was ten years ago, so, I think pessimism is entrenched with the scientifically-informed lot that hang about here. And that was before Fox News became completely evil, leading Americans to embrace war, hate, isolationism and fundamentalism :}

Every generation in their early to middle years thinks the world is likely to end towards the end of their life. When they hit their later years they tend to realise the world will go on without them.

 

It's an ego thing.

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Every time someone says look out for bad shit on the horizon, four or five people have to trot out that old saw about people always saying stuff like that but we've never had it so good.

 

Hey, it's a nice line, but I've heard it before, and I'm not moved in the slightest by it; it's absolutely ignorant of exponential factors. Which is the key thing here.

 

I've seen the writing on the wall for 25 years. I've watched this looming prospect coming over the horizon for a long time, and it's looking pretty exponential.

 

Trouble is, with a shitfight this big, it's hard to tell when it's actually crested the horizon, cause it's so fucking huge it shows for a long time beforehand.

 

For those who have trouble with clunky analogies, here's the deal: we (those of us with our eyes open) told you so. Many of you are still clinging to the illusion of linearity and obviously have no grasp of the global situation, so you still can't see the impending doom. But the dream's days are totally numbered.

 

In the next few years you'll be forced to concede the point. But of course the horse will have bolted 30 years beforehand.

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I haven't read the whole thread but only the first page. i would argue it's fairly obvious the state we've got ourselves in now, so i voted the next best thing - next year. Also voted that it'll all fall to pieces in 5 years, I think that'll be sufficient time for it all to collapse.

 

Happy times!

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Every generation in their early to middle years thinks the world is likely to end towards the end of their life. When they hit their later years they tend to realise the world will go on without them.

 

It's an ego thing.

You are right about the ego thing, imho, but I don't think the world will end - just our civilisation. The modern western one. Very soon, all the neat stuff that goes into magnets, microcircuits, solar cells, etc, etc et-f'ing-cetera is going to be exhausted. That might be able to be recovered from discarded stuff and reused, but it isn't right now - and the technology to do so does not even exist in some cases.

 

Frankly, even if humans tried their damndest to sterilise the planet - carpet bombing with nukes, for instance - the planet itself would not give a fuck (even if it was a conscious entity to do so). Land-based life, otoh, would not be having a good time.

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Tell ya what Kimmo, if you're right, we'll find each other in 25 years at the top of Uluru and I'll buy you a beer. By which, of course, I mean I'll give you the only thimble of drinkable water remaining on the planet.

 

If you're wrong, you can buy me a beer down the pub in 25 years.

 

Which if I'm right will probably be a bit more expensive than it is now, and we might be experiencing some serious social and economic difficulties. So it'll be rough for you to make it over here to WA to buy me that beer, but I'll take you at your word that you'll be willing to sacrifice what's necessary to get over here and buy me that beer. I'm very trusting.

Edited by tantryl

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Every generation in their early to middle years thinks the world is likely to end towards the end of their life. When they hit their later years they tend to realise the world will go on without them.

 

It's an ego thing.

You are right about the ego thing, imho, but I don't think the world will end - just our civilisation. The modern western one. Very soon, all the neat stuff that goes into magnets, microcircuits, solar cells, etc, etc et-f'ing-cetera is going to be exhausted. That might be able to be recovered from discarded stuff and reused, but it isn't right now - and the technology to do so does not even exist in some cases.

 

Frankly, even if humans tried their damndest to sterilise the planet - carpet bombing with nukes, for instance - the planet itself would not give a fuck (even if it was a conscious entity to do so). Land-based life, otoh, would not be having a good time.

 

While people do sometimes get more grand in their scale and include the universe along with it, I was merely talking about swift societal demise. A significant portion of every generation thinks their witnessing societies demise.

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Just cause lots of folks cry wolf doesn't mean wolves aren't a concern.

 

Societies do collapse, usually for similar reasons.

 

Decadence? Check.

 

Resource depletion? Check.

 

Oblivious? Check.

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Every time someone says look out for bad shit on the horizon, four or five people have to trot out that old saw about people always saying stuff like that but we've never had it so good.

 

Hey, it's a nice line, but I've heard it before, and I'm not moved in the slightest by it; it's absolutely ignorant of exponential factors. Which is the key thing here.

 

I've seen the writing on the wall for 25 years. I've watched this looming prospect coming over the horizon for a long time, and it's looking pretty exponential.

 

Trouble is, with a shitfight this big, it's hard to tell when it's actually crested the horizon, cause it's so fucking huge it shows for a long time beforehand.

 

For those who have trouble with clunky analogies, here's the deal: we (those of us with our eyes open) told you so. Many of you are still clinging to the illusion of linearity and obviously have no grasp of the global situation, so you still can't see the impending doom. But the dream's days are totally numbered.

 

In the next few years you'll be forced to concede the point. But of course the horse will have bolted 30 years beforehand.

That's fair enough but let's face it, you really don't want to debate on this, as think you've made up your mind and will not budge from it.

 

I can't predict the future and there's clearly more going on in this world right now in it's sheer and utter complexity that I'd be a lying scumbag if I told people I understood it.

 

I guess in a few years (your prediction, not mine) if Atomic is still here and you are, we can bump this thread and see how right / wrong people were. I'm also sure you've heard the "we've never had it so good" line before, just as I've heard this whole thing before as well.

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Just cause lots of folks cry wolf doesn't mean wolves aren't a concern.

 

Societies do collapse, usually for similar reasons.

 

Decadence? Check.

 

Resource depletion? Check.

 

Oblivious? Check.

Takes centuries? Check.

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It often took centuries (not sure that was the case every time) in the past...

 

But there's a bit more going on these days. More people alive than have ever lived, for example.

 

There's a whole bunch of hockey sticks getting ready to beat us over the head until at least a few more of us can get our heads around exponential functions.

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It often took centuries (not sure that was the case every time) in the past...

 

But there's a bit more going on these days. More people alive than have ever lived, for example.

 

There's a whole bunch of hockey sticks getting ready to beat us over the head until at least a few more of us can get our heads around exponential functions.

Well in all fairness, exponential functions aren't exactly hard to get your head around man.

 

What I think we'll see in our life time are laws around how many children you're allowed to have.

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What I think we'll see in our life time are laws around how many children you're allowed to have.

They won't need to do that, just take away the baby bonus!

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What I think we'll see in our life time are laws around how many children you're allowed to have.

Not sure if anyone will bother. The countries that could make it work without a revolution are generally first world, have an educated population, and thus have birthrates hovering just above or below replacement rate. It's places like India, SE Asia, Africa and South America that need a law like that, and even if they actually introduced it, they'd never be able to enforce it.

 

China was only able to do it because they used the 'iron rice bowl' to beat people with until they fell into line. But hey, it's worked pretty well there.

 

In the long-run, if you want to reduce birthrates, you need to educate your populace, particularly women. There's a really strong correlation between falling birth rates and education.

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Only one problem with China, they care more about boys than girls, late termination abortions if its a girl are a problem in China.

 

Having two daughters of my own, two adopted, one step-daughter and one step-son I find that disgraceful, it's just a different society approach but it still sickens me.

 

 

Cheers

Edited by chrisg

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Only one problem with China, they care more about boys than girls, late termination abortions if its a girl are a problem in China.

Having two daughters of my own, two adopted, one step-daughter and one step-son I find that disgraceful, it's just a different society approach but it still sickens me.

Cheers

 

Not nice Chris but it is not a problem as it drives the population down faster. Less actual breeders who get to be picky about their partners due to the numbers imbalance as a bonus to themselves as the survivors.

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