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Caelum

NBN - Is it too expensive?

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I'm not sure what knowledge you guys have when it comes to communications systems (with exception to AD, who'll no doubt agree with me) but it is prohibitively expensive to be running multiple networks at the same time...

 

We will have three:

 

1) FTTH[/P]

2) Fixed Wireless

3) Satellite.

 

We shouldn't have:

 

1) FTTN

2) FTTH

3) Cable

4) ADSL2+

5) Fixed Wireless

6) Satellite

7) TransACT(and other similar FTTH services)

8) ISDN

9) Any others i've missed?

 

 

Now granted, you would think that the larger list above would be smaller compared to the NBN, so their relative costs are going to be less than the NBN, purely based on scale... But administration and maintenance of all the other network types, vs a single standard across the board?

 

Sorry, but to a comms system designer, that's just a no brainer. Why would you want to support all those systems when you can support 1 (plus wireless/satellite, to ~7%).

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Sorry, but to a comms system designer, that's just a no brainer. Why would you want to support all those systems when you can support 1 (plus wireless/satellite, to ~7%).

Not to mention all the spares you would have to keep on hand for the various fixed line technologies, plus the staff or contractors trained to maintain and repair such disparate fixed line techs.

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Yeah, that's my point more than anything else - the opex of such a network would be horrendous.

 

You'd be well into the red in 10 years time after having to maintain such an array of networks.

 

 

 

 

Standardisation is key.

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:)

 

I started a reply and something glitched ;)

 

Cael, I think I understand comms systems perfectly well and you are utterly correct.

 

ISDN is something T$ would rather get rid of.

 

Satellite and wireless are here to stay, unavoidable.

 

Not so sure what your concern over TransACT is, iinet own them now anyway. If you mean more what Amcom have out there, and note, they are not yet an NBN provider, well, it's up to them, private company and do give a good service.

 

The big no-no is FTTN, it's a band-aid.

 

In the other thread on this subject I did agree with Leo on one thing. You don't really need to take fibre to an entire apartment block, or indeed office building or hotel, at least not in the first pass.

 

That's really a LAN situation interconnecting to the fibre, building copper, other than in big high rises is not going to have much trouble for quite a while and doesn't really need to be a carrier concern.

 

But, if simplicity says all fibre I'm not going to argue.

 

Standardisation is indeed key, without it we would not be a networked world we would be islands of technology having to interconnect with added complexity.

 

The fact that at the outlet NBN is essentially Ethernet makes life incredibly simple for internet connection. When I connected our building that was no issue, we just had some fun getting numbers ported, guess who complicated that? Dear Telstra.

 

It's slightly off-topic but telephone numbering schemes are something that is also well past its use date.

 

IPV.6 is taking too long to roll-out, and I wouldn't want a V.6 address as a 'phone number anyway, but it should map to a location/outlet/person.

 

We are many steps away from it but if Skype for example can just give me my phone list and the net can map me over to the person for a one-off Skype call, somewhere in there you add some smart GPS and forget numbers.

 

That may not be ideal of course, sometimes I just like to disappear :)

 

Cheers

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You've missed out some on both lists Caelum.

 

However, it would be better if you said that the points of maintenance on a FTTP network is the the fibre, the exchange (The effectively "one type of headend equipment." When only servicing one make/model of things it's easier to keep spare parts on hand), the premises and the points of interconnect to wireless/satellite.

 

When you start going FTTN, you add to that list, differing headend equipment (more variations = more difficult to hold spares) nodes and junctions.

 

Further, you have the issue of different communication mediums going down one cable filled with lots of pairs, means that you are going to get unusual cross-talk which is a little harder to noise reduce. ADSL2+ side by side with VDSL2+.

 

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You're right. I forgot that standardization means that the zero dollars the government is currently paying to maintain the cable network will decrease once the fibre is in the ground.

 

Praise Conroy!

Edited by Mac Dude

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You're right. I forgot that standardization means that the zero dollars the government is currently paying to maintain the cable network will decrease once the fibre is in the ground.

 

Praise Conroy!

And what happens when those technologies fall behind the FTTH network? Then the country is fragmented into separate speed zones with varying reliability and maximum speeds. That's a terrible state of affairs for something as important as Internet access. Do it right, do it once. NBNCo isn't a charity, the money will eventually be recouped.

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You're right. I forgot that standardization means that the zero dollars the government is currently paying to maintain the cable network will decrease once the fibre is in the ground.

 

Praise Conroy!

And what happens when those technologies fall behind the FTTH network? Then the country is fragmented into separate speed zones with varying reliability and maximum speeds. That's a terrible state of affairs for something as important as Internet access. Do it right, do it once. NBNCo isn't a charity, the money will eventually be recouped.

 

The FTTH network is going to take how long to roll out? The national network will be fragmented whether you like it or not simply because it takes so long to roll out and there are different technologies being used. Do it once do it right might sound nice, but where is the analysis of what's really needed? You might be happy with tens of billions of dollars spent without any detailed analysis of what's required, but I'm not.

 

As for the money being recouped, you're right - Rudd is going to sell of the network once it's built. Who will pay for it then?

 

EDIT : A point of clarification - it's not just Rudd who will sell it off, Abbott will as well, so this is NOT a point of difference between Labor and the Libs.

Edited by Mac Dude

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The FTTH network is going to take how long to roll out? The national network will be fragmented whether you like it or not simply because it takes so long to roll out and there are different technologies being used. Do it once do it right might sound nice, but where is the analysis of what's really needed? You might be happy with tens of billions of dollars spent without any detailed analysis of what's required, but I'm not.

 

As for the money being recouped, you're right - Rudd is going to sell of the network once it's built. Who will pay for it then?

Of course it'll be fragmented while it's being built. That's exactly how it is now, and how it will remain under the Coalition. If it is sold, do you really think they'll do it for less than cost price?

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The FTTH network is going to take how long to roll out? The national network will be fragmented whether you like it or not simply because it takes so long to roll out and there are different technologies being used. Do it once do it right might sound nice, but where is the analysis of what's really needed? You might be happy with tens of billions of dollars spent without any detailed analysis of what's required, but I'm not.

 

As for the money being recouped, you're right - Rudd is going to sell of the network once it's built. Who will pay for it then?

Of course it'll be fragmented while it's being built. That's exactly how it is now, and how it will remain under the Coalition. If it is sold, do you really think they'll do it for less than cost price?

 

 

I never said they would. That hasn't been a point I've been making so I don't know where you're getting that from.

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The FTTH network is going to take how long to roll out? The national network will be fragmented whether you like it or not simply because it takes so long to roll out and there are different technologies being used. Do it once do it right might sound nice, but where is the analysis of what's really needed? You might be happy with tens of billions of dollars spent without any detailed analysis of what's required, but I'm not.

 

As for the money being recouped, you're right - Rudd is going to sell of the network once it's built. Who will pay for it then?

Of course it'll be fragmented while it's being built. That's exactly how it is now, and how it will remain under the Coalition. If it is sold, do you really think they'll do it for less than cost price?

 

 

I never said they would. That hasn't been a point I've been making so I don't know where you're getting that from.

 

You'll need to clarify what you mean by "Who will pay for it then".

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it's obvious, the consumers will. The government will sell it off and we will pay throught the nose - NBN Co have provided an estimate stating I'll be paying more than I am now, for example.

 

EDIT : Actually not sure how that question came up - the consumers will pay no matter what...

Edited by Mac Dude

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You're right. I forgot that standardization means that the zero dollars the government is currently paying to maintain the cable network will decrease once the fibre is in the ground.

 

Praise Conroy!

And what happens when those technologies fall behind the FTTH network? Then the country is fragmented into separate speed zones with varying reliability and maximum speeds. That's a terrible state of affairs for something as important as Internet access. Do it right, do it once. NBNCo isn't a charity, the money will eventually be recouped.

 

The FTTH network is going to take how long to roll out? The national network will be fragmented whether you like it or not simply because it takes so long to roll out and there are different technologies being used. Do it once do it right might sound nice, but where is the analysis of what's really needed? You might be happy with tens of billions of dollars spent without any detailed analysis of what's required, but I'm not.

 

As for the money being recouped, you're right - Rudd is going to sell of the network once it's built. Who will pay for it then?

 

EDIT : A point of clarification - it's not just Rudd who will sell it off, Abbott will as well, so this is NOT a point of difference between Labor and the Libs.

 

The Labor NBN cannot just be "sold off". It has to pass review and Parliament vote before that is possible.

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it's obvious, the consumers will. The government will sell it off and we will pay throught the nose - NBN Co have provided an estimate stating I'll be paying more than I am now, for example.

 

EDIT : Actually not sure how that question came up - the consumers will pay no matter what...

Yes you will pay more if you take up the faster plans. The ARPU is based on consumers wanting more and more services not the price per megabyte going up.

So ARPU will increase if consumers take up faster plans, a VoD service or something else that needs a second or third network service.

Just like ARPU has increased on ADSL despite the per megabyte cost dropping drastically over the years.

 

As for selling it off, ye that is a dumb decision IMO, but from memory they had to include some pretty tight conditions to any sell off to get independent support in the Senate so hopefully that will prevent a repeat of the Telstra sell off debacle (I know optimistic of me. :-()

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Hmm,

 

Now that is interesting Tasty, thanks.

 

Simon knows whereof he speaks, I sort of know him, great guy.

 

What he is saying is of course leaving himself open to claims of self-interest but the reality is that there is and will continue to be healthy competition in the ISP market.

 

Cheers

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The NBN is fragmented as hell here in Tasmania. If you look at the rollout map, Moonah, West Moonah, Lutana aren't even listed for the network. Although Glenorchy and beyond, and New Town, North Hobart, Mount Stuart etc are under construction. That means this area (Moonah) won't even see the NBN if Abbott gets in, and even if Krudd remains it'll be a 3 years plus wait.

 

The NBN needs to be total NBN. Not this FTTN/copper compromise ...

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The NBN is fragmented as hell here in Tasmania. If you look at the rollout map, Moonah, West Moonah, Lutana aren't even listed for the network. Although Glenorchy and beyond, and New Town, North Hobart, Mount Stuart etc are under construction. That means this area (Moonah) won't even see the NBN if Abbott gets in, and even if Krudd remains it'll be a 3 years plus wait.

 

The NBN needs to be total NBN. Not this FTTN/copper compromise ...

Well the FTTH NBN has to be rolled in some sort of order. The rollout is partially at least being done on engineering an design principals. Also according to the NBN rollout map Glenorchy, Moonah, West Moonah. Fibre construction commenced - construction commenced in Jun 2013.

And

Bridgewater, Derwent Park, Dowsing Point, Gagebrook, Glenorchy, Goodwood, Herdsmans Cove, Lutana, Moonah, Old Beach, Otago, West Moonah.

Fibre construction to commence within one year - we will commence construction from Dec 2012 in phases with last construction scheduled to commence in Apr 2014.

 

So apparently you are wrong about a 3 year plus wait, assuming the ALP wins the election. If the Coalition wins then bank on all the unstarted construction to be put on hold while the Coalition do innumerable reports, studies and tests, then renegotiate contracts, negotiate new contracts for access to the power needed for the nodes, redesign everything and source the relevant hardware. So I would bet they won't even start their fraudband till at least after the next election, due in 2016, if ever. My bet is they will flog off everything they can and then say leave it to private enterprise to roll out any improvements probably with suitable tax payer funded bribes incentives to those private corporations.

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Not quite Ali. Construction commence Moonah. Coalition said they will not can any contracts that are pretty much 'in effect'. If construction has commenced, he's got it. The boots are on the ground as it were.

 

What bugs me about the entire scare campaign is how Coalition shoot themselves in the foot so much. OMG The Telstra Pits have ASBESTOS! Yes they do. 1) Abbott himself was responsible for not removing it (He canned the idea in favour of "don't disturb the pits" whilst he was health minister). 2) The same stumble blocks will exist for Coalitions NBN plan. You will still have to work with the pits.

 

Anyways. *BLAH!*

 

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So apparently you are wrong about a 3 year plus wait, assuming the ALP wins the election. If the Coalition wins then bank on all the unstarted construction to be put on hold while the Coalition do innumerable reports, studies and tests, then renegotiate contracts, negotiate new contracts for access to the power needed for the nodes, redesign everything and source the relevant hardware. So I would bet they won't even start their fraudband till at least after the next election, due in 2016, if ever.

 

Hmmm, that's changed since I looked at it 3 weeks ago. All of Moonah, West Moonah, Lutana was a big white gap on the map, so it's been updated. Will have to wait and see what the election brings ... As much as I don't care for Krudd ... I certainly care much less for Abbott's policies and Government.

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http://simonhackett.com/2013/07/17/nbn-fib...-copper-budget/

 

An interesting presentation from the founder of Internode. TLDR; The current NBN is too expensive. FTTN is not the solution, we should reduce unnecessary features that no one wants or needs.

What, the NBN at any cost is not a good idea?

 

 

;)

 

Thanks TW, more food for thought...

Edited by Mac Dude

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Ouchie.

 

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/08/15/coaliti...-goes-uncosted/

--------------------------

However, Turnbull posted on Twitter: “Not avoiding it. PBO didn’t have or claim to have technical expertise on NBN engineering issues.” In response, Banks posted: “Thank you, @turnbullmalcolm for admitting that there will be no independent PBO costing of NBN Co.”

 

As a side note, Albanese appears to be correct in that KPMG did examine NBN Co’s initial business plan. A report produced by the firm, along with fellow consulting group McKinsey, was released in May 2010 which closely examined the Government’s approach to the NBN. In general, the report found that the Government’s NBN plan was viable, but also made a number of key recommendations on how it could be improved.

 

------------------------

 

Included the 2nd paragraph because it is relevant. Labor is apparently ignoring some key recommendations. I'm sure we can find out what they were/are.

 

So.. This fully costed NBN proposal by Liberal is not fully costed. In fact it has not been independantly assessed.

 

Expect this one to be ridden into the ground in the coming weeks.

 

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