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scruffy1

how crap is this government ?

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27 minutes ago, chrisg said:

I don't really think it is going to make much difference

 

this-is-fine-oc-im-okay-with-the-events-

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Still bothered by Adani.

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1 hour ago, chrisg said:

🙂

 

Or he's simply drowning his sorrows...

 

I prefer my version...

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first dog nails it yet again

 

 

i agree with other analysis that too much detail of potential change loses a winnable election, just like john hewson's "fightback" self goal; even dutton quoted "this is the sweetest victory of them all" with a nod to keating, and probably identified the similarity

never underestimate the attraction of greed and "safety" over benefits to an entire nation

my guess is that when the global recession hits any time soon, the libs will be unhappy that it's not possible to complain that "it's all labor's fault"

not saying that the labor team would have any more hope of averting world financial disaster, but for the less privileged waiting for something to trickle down, it's unlikely they'll get anything that hasn't been filtered through wealthy kidneys

 

hey! a little more time to fuck things up will make the prospect of a labor government with a suitably charismatic leader with no disturbingly fair policies a shoo in for the next democratic sausage fest

 

 

1266.jpg

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1 hour ago, eveln said:

Still bothered by Adani.

 

You might end up with Adani and Palmer's Carmichael mine!

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55 minutes ago, scruffy1 said:

when the global recession hits any time soon, the libs will be unhappy that it's not possible to complain that "it's all labor's fault"

 

A carton says they do that anyway!

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2 hours ago, Jeruselem said:

 

You might end up with Adani and Palmer's Carmichael mine!

You're right. Just a fucking pity Labor didn't have the balls to commit.

 

2 hours ago, scruffy1 said:


my guess is that when the global recession hits any time soon, the libs will be unhappy that it's not possible to complain that "it's all labor's fault"

I don't see why they would or could ... recession shit is in progress already imo.

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Posted (edited)

Real estate prices are a falling knife in financial terms, the price increases were debt driven by easy lending from the banks. So the banks aren't giving out loans so easily, so no credit to actually buy property. Buyers are waiting for price to fall further. People with money aren't buying property, they are waiting for real bargains.

Edited by Jeruselem

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Posted (edited)

LNP have 77 seats, or maybe 78. But it looks the senate, is going be a minefield for them with the Greens potentially hold 9 seats. Pauline and that Cory guy should side with the LNP.

Edited by Jeruselem

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4 hours ago, scruffy1 said:

never underestimate the attraction of greed and "safety" over benefits to an entire nation

 

I never do.

 

Every time someone comes looking for money in my pocket to give yet more sit down money to themselves or undeserving moochers at a cost to be repaid by enslaving my children to debt they have to repay, I never underestimate their greed or their claim that there is “safety” in equity.

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21 minutes ago, Leonid said:

Every time someone comes looking for money in my pocket to give yet more sit down money to themselves or undeserving moochers at a cost to be repaid by enslaving my children to debt they have to repay, I never underestimate their greed or their claim that there is “safety” in equity.

 

Are you sure you're not secretly a Libertarian, Leo - you sound just like one sometimes.  How do you feel about a) taxation, and b) the gold standard vs fiat currency?

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3 minutes ago, Cybes said:

 

Are you sure you're not secretly a Libertarian, Leo - you sound just like one sometimes.  How do you feel about a) taxation, and b) the gold standard vs fiat currency?

 

I'm a small-l libertarian, yeah.

 

I like the theory of "out of my bedroom and out of my business" but I don't subscribe to a black and white view of it.

But to answer your question:

- Taxation is a necessary evil. The less of it the better, and the more that is wasted on unnecessary programs, the worse.

- The gold standard is dumb. The end.

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16 minutes ago, Leonid said:

- Taxation is a necessary evil. The less of it the better, and the more that is wasted on unnecessary programs, the worse.

- The gold standard is dumb. The end.

 

well, you were the one who predicted scott morrison would make a fine pm

 

he made pm, so i guess you got that bit right

 

i don't count his previous incarnation as gap filler for a failed coup, but i concede he got given this one in his own right, with some considerable assistance from an own goal by shorten with the labor version of fightback, and the preferences of the corpulent yellow candidate

 

 

i'm looking forward to us having the national debt paid off once they don't double the limits another time

 

in truth, the allowances for our elected parliament are the most generous form of sit down money ever self administered

 

 

i wonder what talent will comprise the cabinet, as i struggle to nominate any of the stragglers from the cull as being noted for prior competence... these must be the interesting times the chinese are always wishing us as they buy our country

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Looks like we got our next PM-in-waiting and hopefully our foreign minister. Wentworth is the Libs' again.

 

Sharma's in.

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1 hour ago, Leonid said:

Looks like we got our next PM-in-waiting and hopefully our foreign minister. Wentworth is the Libs' again.

 

Sharma's in.

That'll be interesting to dig into: https://www.politwoops.com/p/australia/fraser_anning

 

In any other electorate, the greens and labor prefers would've rolled to Phelps.

 

I saw some scuttle butt over the last few days that Adani was basically no longer feasible: it'd be a nett money sink, the numbers were basically all a bit cooked, and released to the public with politicians talking up jobs just for short term voter appeal, knowing it'd flop.

 

I've yet to see anything about that covered in the post-vote breakdown so far, tho' maybe it's early days.

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5 minutes ago, Nich... said:

In any other electorate, the greens and labor prefers would've rolled to Phelps.

 

They did. Thing is, Labor basically has no play and is pretty much despised in Wentworth. 10% is all they can muster there.

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Oh shit, sorry, pasted wrong link.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/went

 

'Other' and 'UAP' would be knocked out and redistributed, but that's only 1.5% and not enough to tip Sharma over 50%.

 

Next up is Greens on 7.1%, and then Labor on 10.8%.  Combined that's 17.9%, which would be just enough to push Phelps over to 50.8%.  Yet currently ABC is showing 51.2:48.8 in Sharma's favour.

 

Phelps claimed her votes pretty equally from both sides of the middle, but in second place her preferences won't be tipped to anyone else.  So how many people went Greens 1 Liberal 2?  Less than 4% would win him the seat.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Nich... said:

Oh shit, sorry, pasted wrong link.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/went

 

'Other' and 'UAP' would be knocked out and redistributed, but that's only 1.5% and not enough to tip Sharma over 50%.

 

Next up is Greens on 7.1%, and then Labor on 10.8%.  Combined that's 17.9%, which would be just enough to push Phelps over to 50.8%.  Yet currently ABC is showing 51.2:48.8 in Sharma's favour.

 

Phelps claimed her votes pretty equally from both sides of the middle, but in second place her preferences won't be tipped to anyone else.  So how many people went Greens 1 Liberal 2?  Less than 4% would win him the seat.

 

Could be anything really.

 

Lots could have voted Labor 1, Libs 2.

 

Or Phelps 1, Libs 2.

 

Or a combination that means that some of her preferences end up going to Libs in 2pp

Edited by Leonid

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IIRC, for each round of polling, whoever has the least results is knocked out and their vote is distributed to 'their' second preference.

So if Sharma wins, and it's not on the basis of a primary of over 48%, it has to come from people who voted 1 for labour or greens.

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Joel Fitzgibbon has had a crack at diagnosis of what went wrong for Labor.

 

Slugging people with new taxes, rapid rate of change for the sake of change, and tacks to the left are all wrong moves.

 

They’re quick these Labor people, I tell you. Quick!

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8 minutes ago, scruffy1 said:

some current numbers

 

https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-152.htm

 

only ~ 75% counted thus far

 

no-one has yet called majority for the libs

 

Anthony Green has called it 12h ago, with an if statement for Bass.

 

5 seats in play left, 2 already trending Lib, 4 possible and postals yet to be counted.

 

Majority government is not something you’d bet against at this point.

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26 minutes ago, Leonid said:

Joel Fitzgibbon has had a crack at diagnosis of what went wrong for Labor.

 

Slugging people with new taxes, rapid rate of change for the sake of change, and tacks to the left are all wrong moves.

 

They’re quick these Labor people, I tell you. Quick!

what went wrong was choosing Bill Shorten as leader

never came across as sincere,  

Hawke dieing last week showed a huge difference between a man who could lead and a try hard

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Nich... said:

Craig Kelly looks like he blackmailed his way back in to another term.

Him being my local member, and I being on my suburb's Progress Association - means that I am across every single council communication both incoming and outgoing and also development proposals (whether they being private dwelling developments or public developments.)

You aren't far from the truth.

Kelly is a fucking slime bag. 

He gets his lapdog, Frank Zumbo, to launch legal action upon anyone on a local Facebook group who speaks negatively of him. Citing defamation.
And when I say speaking negatively about him, nobody personally attacks him, just the way he operates - it's well known how he operates.
Kelly never turns up when he is requested to, he only ever sends Frank Zumbo along to the monthly meetings. So not only is he a slime bag, but a spineless little slime bag, too.

 

So now that I am on the Progress Association committee - I love watching Frank squirm when I won't stand for him trying to bully old people who have been in this town for 60+ years.

It's only a matter of time before he tries something, somehow, to get me silenced or ousted from the committee.

But I was brought in by the PA's president to do just this - upset the applecart.


Fun times.



 

 

Edited by twinair
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