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Mac Dude

Same-sex postal survey is a go

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The High Court has just handed down their decision to let the survey proceed.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-07/politics-live-september-7/8880598

 

The decision was unanimous.

 

Now that it's a go, I thought it would be interesting to get people's thoughts on what the Yes/No breakdown will be. No prizes for guessing right :)

 

EDIT : Oh, my guess is the result will be 58% Yes.

Edited by Mac Dude

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Somewhere around there I'd expect Mac.

 

Personally I don't think it is any business of politicians and a complete and utter waste of money, spoken as a total heterosexual :)

 

Cheers

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I just hope this leads to a speedy conclusion...or, at least, that my general lack of faith in people to not be dicks over the next weeks/months is not proven too conclusively.

 

I'll go 63% yes

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Are we betting on the plebiscite result, or the outcome? Because it doesn't matter what we want, the LNP is going to vote 'No'.

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Anything less than 55:45, either way, is going to cause a lot of drama. I'd like to see 60+ for yes, tho' I'd also like to see more media showing the number of groups you'd think would be voting no - like Catholics among other Christians - have a strong yes vote within them.

I'm not sure we'll see more than an 80% turnout, tho', in which case even a 60% win is going to be seen as not a majority, in some quarters.

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Are we betting on the plebiscite result, or the outcome? Because it doesn't matter what we want, the LNP is going to vote 'No'.

The thread is about the survey, so that's what I'm asking :)

 

What happens from there is another question.

 

Oh as far as forum polls are concerned, can you put your own value like a percentage in a poll?

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Oh as far as forum polls are concerned, can you put your own value like a percentage in a poll?

Not exactly sure what you're asking for, but if it's my 'bet': 70-75% in favour, based on the (small group of) people I talk to down here: Nobody really gives a blank about it one way or the other, but don't want to stand in anyone else's way to happiness.

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Oh as far as forum polls are concerned, can you put your own value like a percentage in a poll?

Not exactly sure what you're asking for, but if it's my 'bet': 70-75% in favour, based on the (small group of) people I talk to down here: Nobody really gives a blank about it one way or the other, but don't want to stand in anyone else's way to happiness.

 

No, the whole point is providing your predicted result, not 4 groups of different percentage ranges.

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...don't want to stand in anyone else's way to happiness.

 

Marriage = Happiness?
No married person would ever make such a wild assertion. Let's be honest, the whole marriage equality issue is nothing but a Machiavellian scheme designed to punish the Gay community. The Heterosexuals have long been jealously eyeing off the Gays' free and flamboyant lifestyle, patiently plotting a way to spectacularly crush it. Now the bait has been taken and the trap is almost ready to be sprung. Turn back, you fools! Turn back before it's too late!
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i think it will be a lowish number disproportionate to the real sentiment of the people.

why?

i suspect potential negative voters are fairly homogeneous in terms of being highly motivated to participate, whereas potential positive voters sit on a much wider spectrum between enthusiasm and indifference, not to mention those who are antagonistic towards the whole damned sham of a process.

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...Because it doesn't matter what we want, the LNP is going to vote 'No'.

 

what do you think their play is, really? i just dont get it.

 

i have not seen much public discussion about this — it has mostly been whining about the supposed emotional toll of the debate. okay, so we know that when Bernardi defected its not like he made much of a dent on the extreme conservative composition of the party. but whose strategy is this, and why? no matter which way i look at it, even somehow allowing for very smart people who just happen to believe gayness is 'against god', i cant locate any intelligence in their motivations. yeah, haha because the NLP are mostly regressive fuckwits... but even my most plausible of theories are so shaky. cui bono?

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You're all very pessimistic, I suspect it'll be ~70% yes.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but because of the way this is being run, voting isn't mandatory? So it's about which side of the two extremes is less apathetic, and I'd wager the liberals are more energetic than the conservatives.

i hope the returns are high and a clear majority is reached
it is such a third level issue


This is another reason I think we'll see a clear majority. Truthfully, I don't really care that much about gay marriage as an issue. That might be hurtful to some people for whom this is their whole world, but no one can care about everything, and this is a non-issue for me. As such, I'm inclined to vote yes because it seems like the speediest way to get parliament to stop tying itself in knots over the damn thing and move on to real issues. I think we'll see a protest turnout from people who would otherwise be on the fence and maybe voting no.

Edited by Sir_Substance
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...and I'd wager the liberals are more energetic than the conservatives.

One can only hope, but that's pretty much the polar opposite of the voluntary US election system. The lefties (less right?) always have more trouble getting people to turn up.

 

 

Marriage = Happiness?

 

No married person would ever make such a wild assertion.

Nor would I. However, being able to visit your loved one when thay are dying would be nice; keeping the child you have raised together would also; being elligable to collect their super/pension as well.

 

 

 

what do you think their play is, really? i just dont get it.

They want to appear to be taking note of public opinion whilst following the dictates of their own '50s morality.

 

This is what happens when the upper echelon of your Party is occupied with old Churchy types, and your Constitution has no clause about seperation of Church and State.

Edited by Cybes

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but because of the way this is being run, voting isn't mandatory?

 

 

No, you're not wrong there. However, apparently big mobs of new enrollments have been added. That still doesn't mean all pre- existing voters will bother, but given the stuff is mailed out and I gather paid envelopes (Aus post must be turning in their graves at the loss of profit, or is that where a goodly portion of the $122 million goes ? :P) will make it less of a chore for those particularly apathetic dudes ... they do still have to mark their preference of course, and whether that is managed in a clear and correct manner remains to be seen. It could all be messed up with whole truck loads of donkey votes.

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i think it will be a lowish number disproportionate to the real sentiment of the people.

 

why?

 

i suspect potential negative voters are fairly homogeneous in terms of being highly motivated to participate, whereas potential positive voters sit on a much wider spectrum between enthusiasm and indifference, not to mention those who are antagonistic towards the whole damned sham of a process.

It's the indifferent folks that worry me. More and more I've come across people who are marginally yes because they can't see any reason same sex couples not to be married. However they may not have many/any friends who are impacted and it's these folks who may just forget to respond.

 

If it were a mandatory vote I wouldn't be concerned for the Yes campaign, but it's not for obvious reasons.

Great, all the churchy people will be petitioning on the streets. I hate those people.

You mean like these folks :

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-07/religious-leaders-thinking-differently-about-same-sex-marriage/8878680

 

Yeah, bastards.

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Great, all the churchy people will be petitioning on the streets. I hate those people.

You mean like these folks :

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-07/religious-leaders-thinking-differently-about-same-sex-marriage/8878680

 

Yeah, bastards.

That's an exceptional enough event to warrant a story. If it were the norm, nobody woul bother talking about it.

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Great, all the churchy people will be petitioning on the streets. I hate those people.

You mean like these folks :

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-07/religious-leaders-thinking-differently-about-same-sex-marriage/8878680

 

Yeah, bastards.

That's an exceptional enough event to warrant a story. If it were the norm, nobody woul bother talking about it.

 

 

I meant the evangelists and 7th day mormon types who pester you. It's bad enough I have to wait for a bus near one of these.

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what do you think their play is, really? i just dont get it.

They want to appear to be taking note of public opinion whilst following the dictates of their own '50s morality.

 

This is what happens when the upper echelon of your Party is occupied with old Churchy types, and your Constitution has no clause about separation of Church and State.

 

true, but like every other plausible guess this is flimsy at best! :)

 

because they arent fooling anyone with this shit. they are placating a minority of bigots and pandering to an even smaller minority of ultra conservative faithful — and everyone knows it.

 

an election isnt necessarily going to be won or lost over this issue, but they sure think its worth spending a paradoxically large amount of time and energy "proving" how much of a non-issue it is to a portion of the electorate whose significance is highly questionable — while validating its importance to the rest. that is, no matter the vote tally, they arent going to have their cake and eat it. if the yes vote is high, its instantly politically toxic since they are beholden to their own power brokers who would see the LNP be the party that institutes gay marriage over their dead bodies. if not, they have just burnt the very last of their delaying tactics in one giant homophobic house fire, when the genuine political will of the majority isnt going anywhere. so either way, theyve ensured the high risk of this being an election-losing manoeuvre. the cost to benefit ratio of this farce just doesnt tally!

Edited by @~thehung
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"... the cost to benefit ratio of this farce just doesnt tally "

 

Which is why I reckon the count of the postal vote will go up in flames due to some OTT reason or another. Something will happen which could not have been foreseen and at best the out come of the tally would be ' an educated guess ' at best :P <<< huge amount of irony in using the word "educated" ... lol.

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