Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
SceptreCore

Are we ready for war?

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, chrisg said:

SC, there have been U.S. Navy assets including guided missile destroyers in and around the South China sea for decades. The U.S. Navy has been patrolling around Japan since the end of WWII with a large presence on mainland Japan and a carrier group and one or two nuclear subs, most commonly attack boats but a boomer is never far away. Situation normal in other words apart from China creating artificial islands.

I do find those islands somewhat provocative even though apart from being used as forward air bases they are pretty much useless chunks of enhanced rock.

However if I were China with their rather sudden dramatic rise in wealth I'd be looking at my border security as well.

I also agree with Leo about Russia being dirt poor, Putin has aspects of Lenin and other leaders before him, spending the country into bankruptcy whilst locking up the very scientists who have worked on them. He's not a moron but he doesn't seem to recognise history repeating itself.

Cheers

Yes... the US have roamed international waters for decades. Except now in the SCS, where China runs straight up to them and tells them to rack off, tells their planes to move away or be fired upon.

China has no claim to these islands, even the man made ones (that are damaging the environment). But they've taken the area unchallenged. 

Japan's military is small but it is tough, and could challenge China. Japan is looking to have it's military restrictions removed.

Nations everywhere are increasing their military strength and mobilizing. And I agree that this region will have a conflict start here. Whether is precipitates another world war or not remains to be seen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To interleave:

Yes... the US have roamed international waters for decades. Except now in the SCS, where China runs straight up to them and tells them to rack off, tells their planes to move away or be fired upon.

? The Chinese started doing that almost two decades ago, nothing new about it and the U.S. carrier groups and recon aircraft treat it with the ignore it deserves

China has no claim to these islands, even the man made ones (that are damaging the environment). But they've taken the area unchallenged. 

Agreed, their only claim is an extraordinarily tenuous historical one, but nobody else wants or was using them either. Given the mess China makes of the environment in general I don't think what is happening to those islands (if they can even be called that) bothers them much. Actually their use of the Islands indicates a crucial weakness in their military. They know damned well they can't match current generation  U.S. carriers, let alone next gen, so a couple of unsinkable, but by the same context absolutely known location "carriers" is their strategy. Were there to be a shooting war those islands would be usable for about five minutes - very expensive smoke and mirrors on the Chinese part.

Japan's military is small but it is tough, and could challenge China. Japan is looking to have it's military restrictions removed.

The JSDF is VERY small, competent yes, and they would like carriers again, but they could not match China without significant assistance.

Nations everywhere are increasing their military strength and mobilizing. And I agree that this region will have a conflict start here. Whether is precipitates another world war or not remains to be seen. 

I doubt it in our immediate region the Indian peninsula as noted - possible.

Not everyone is increasing their militaries, in fact a number are shrinking or have near vanished.

Cheers

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, chrisg said:

If anyone thinks the U.S. does not have a similar capability but is playing coy just the way they do with most deep black developments such as the SR-71 and F-117 then they don't know the way the U'S. plays versus the Russian chest beating

True 'dat, but it'd want to be a  real eye-opener to get the Reds and The Other Reds to pull their heads in from their perceived increased posturing stances.

And would have thought King Crackpot would have well and truly opened what he considers his personal toy chest by now to show any of the good stuff off - you must admit he's demonstrated on more than one occasion he has zero self-control on his mouth/thumbs.

Or you think the the cooler heads behind the curtains just haven't shown their pet maniac the goodies yet?

 

21 hours ago, chrisg said:

Now we have a moron in so-called command but a lot of cooler military heads

which King Crackpot seems  to madly amuse himself effectively purging or pushing anyone hard enough to jump ship who disagrees or even frowns at any of his bright ideas...

 

21 hours ago, chrisg said:

State, keeping him under control, just wish they'd take his 'phone away to deny him his twit addiction

That's "under control"?? Think I'll be actively trying to thumbing a lift off planet when the next anal probe tour drops by if they lose it... and there's a more than  a couple of people I know over that side of the moat that'd cheerfully carry my bags as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

?

Presidents often are not advised of deep black projects until it is seen fit to tell them. Partly the Pentagon has a deal of independent control over the black budget and partly the manufacturers are probably more security conscious than the CIA ?

The Twit has hire and fire control over those within the White fairyland but not so much at Foggy Bottom or the Big House. In theory he does but in practice he keeps firing or having senior officials responsible for those entities resign so often that their degree of independence is rather high at the moment.

That's a long way of saying he really doesn't have clue one about the chain-of-command, hardly surprising, he doesn't seem to read his daily briefings, gets it from CNN and Fox News instead... He couldn't govern a cat-house, and I don't mean the four legged variety, he'd keep firing madams... ?

Cheers

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, chrisg said:

The JSDF is VERY small, competent yes, and they would like carriers again, but they could not match China without significant assistance.

 

They've got them now practically.Their two helicopter carriers are going to be refitted to carry F35B's

Quote

Agreed, their only claim is an extraordinarily tenuous historical one, but nobody else wants or was using them either. Given the mess China makes of the environment in general I don't think what is happening to those islands (if they can even be called that) bothers them much. Actually their use of the Islands indicates a crucial weakness in their military. They know damned well they can't match current generation  U.S. carriers, let alone next gen, so a couple of unsinkable, but by the same context absolutely known location "carriers" is their strategy. Were there to be a shooting war those islands would be usable for about five minutes - very expensive smoke and mirrors on the Chinese part.

Well it's kind of funny actually... it has redirected the migration of jellyfish in the area. These jellyfish now get sucked into the cooling tubes for the Chinese aircraft carrier's reactor., blocking them up and forcing them to shut it down. So they are coming up with different ideas to combat this including having ships in the carrier group that intercept them and chop them up before they get to the carrier. 

China is determined though, and they are constantly and rapidly expanding, and getting involved in the political affairs of other nations (like Australia). China has taken the SCS and they won't give it back. That's a multibillion dollar shipping lane that they have just taken and no one has called them on it. Then there is the debt trap diplomacy they are doing with many strategic developing countries abroad which they will use to expand their influence. The One Belt One Road initiative. Eventually it's going to make the US and China lock horns. 

Trump's trade war is probably the first battle ground. Hit China where it hurts. Try to convince them to settle down or it will escalate.

1 hour ago, merlin13 said:

True 'dat, but it'd want to be a  real eye-opener to get the Reds and The Other Reds to pull their heads in from their perceived increased posturing stances.

And would have thought King Crackpot would have well and truly opened what he considers his personal toy chest by now to show any of the good stuff off - you must admit he's demonstrated on more than one occasion he has zero self-control on his mouth/thumbs.

Or you think the the cooler heads behind the curtains just haven't shown their pet maniac the goodies yet?

which King Crackpot seems  to madly amuse himself effectively purging or pushing anyone hard enough to jump ship who disagrees or even frowns at any of his bright ideas...

That's "under control"?? Think I'll be actively trying to thumbing a lift off planet when the next anal probe tour drops by if they lose it... and there's a more than  a couple of people I know over that side of the moat that'd cheerfully carry my bags as well

 I agree Merlin. That's not control. Trump rules with fear. He will ruin anyone who stands in his way and there aren't many he can't get to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

?

I had heard the carrier tale of jellyfish SC.

True enough, the JSDF heli-carriers are going to carry small squadrons of F-35s, not really very significant though, depends how well they prove to integrate with land-based F-35s and those of other nations in a network-centric battlefield

Any blockage of the SCS would hurt China itself very badly, other shipping lanes around the globe are far more vulnerable to blockade.

Debt trap, totally, but what do they do if nations default ? The argument assumes there is something sinister behind Chinese largess, not really, money is not much use unless you invest it in something and China is awash in the stuff.

Washington does not really work as a despot monarchy, Trump rules the White House, and keeps grabbing headlines, mostly to his embarrassment but his real power over government falls away rapidly as you move down the chain.

At various times I've worked there and at others done so from outside the Conus, most of the time the people I've worked for don't have the same agenda as the sitting president and just get on with their job. It seems you might believe what Trump does, that he is in total control, he's not and his power is waning.

Cheers

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, chrisg said:

It seems you might believe what Trump does, that he is in total control, he's not and his power is waning.

Oh, no, don't mistake me, I'm not foolish enough to think that. But it is a systemic kind of system, in where his cronies departments of the executive branch are in fear of acting or speaking out in case of reprisal. It's been a boon on the Left to take back the House. It's partially crippled the US, which is great for its enemies to carry out their agenda unchallenged. But whether the Left or the Right was ruling... both these superpowers will have to come to conflict. It's the way it's happened with every superpower throughout history.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

?

It only happened with the Cold War in surrogate wars, but most importantly China simply does not want war, they want to secure their country and their ideology.

The U'S system is very, very different to the Westminster system and it has some very serious flaws but you are dead right, the Dems take control of the lower house soon and investigations of Trump will begin in earnest. We MAY see a President lashing out but effectively powerless, shades of Carter to some degree.

Hopefully enough of the mud sticks to kick him out, a cornered rat can be sort of dangerous though. It is not impossible to visualise an uprising against him, civil war to remove a head of a country if he does not go quietly, hopefully in handcuffs - it has happened elsewhere but never in modern America, Nixon was the closest. The irony is Nixon's crimes were rather trivial compared to the accusations being leveled against Trump.

I do rather seriously wonder if he can survive another year in the WH.

Anyone who ignores the lessons of history is doomed to repeat them but nukes are one very powerful game-changer.

Cheers

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Global war? Maybe. End of pax americana, sure. Global awfulness, almost certainly. The rise and rise of the extreme right and plain idiocy worldwide is a horrifying reality that we're kinda  missing.
While the ideologues act and we just complain, it'll only get worse. We stopped listening to each other a ways back and echo-chamber social media etc. are making it worse.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mykl_c said:

Global war? Maybe. End of pax americana, sure. Global awfulness, almost certainly. The rise and rise of the extreme right and plain idiocy worldwide is a horrifying reality that we're kinda  missing.
While the ideologues act and we just complain, it'll only get worse. We stopped listening to each other a ways back and echo-chamber social media etc. are making it worse.

I agree. There is a sharp rise of awfulness in the world today. Ideology is being weaponized. Whataboutism is a covering excuse for all sorts of nasty stuff, and we can see how it's being used throughout the political and social spectrum.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We've survived worse.

The rise of fascism, the emergence of Russia on to the world stage post WWII, the Hungarian invasion, the Czech crisis, Vietnam, a series of M.E. wars, Idi Amin, the French riots of the late sixties, early seventies, Cuba, the Malaysian insurrection, Northern Ireland, various wars in Africa, which few take much notice of.

It's a long list - most of it originates from the turn of the last century, the sheer stupidity of WWI and the Russian Revolution.

Were America, for all its faults, to implode or retreat to isolationism, which they would be fully entitled to do, THEN there would be a power vacuum to worry about.

I'd very much agree though mycl, social media is more trouble than it is worth, mostly FB and Twitter. Mainstream media seems to use those pair of annoying platforms as "news" sources these days, whilst Trump is the first President to use it pretty much daily to generate "fake news."

Cheers

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SceptreCore said:

Not just generate fake news... but issue official undrafted white house policy

?

Wait...The Trump White House DRAFTS policy ? rumour has it the dickhead never reads anything so why would he read a draft ?  ?

More likely he reacts to leaks - place leaks like a sieve, that he hears on CNN or Fox ?

Cheers

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

?

Wait... Now you are saying he WRITES ? ?

I suspect his tweets are more likely viagra and insomnia influenced midnight ramblings whilst watching television  ?

Cheers

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the recurring themes in this thread is that the world has recently turned to fascism and that Trump is an utter moron.

Lets start with some simple facts:

  • As of WW2 we (the West) have always favoured ending a war with no resolution. This leads to generations of resentment on all sides. Someone needs to lose, and lose massively.
  • Think of all the wars... India and Pakistan are on what... the 7th full blown conflict? The Israelis and the Arabs are yet to compromise on the Arab desire to kill all Jews and return the region to the 7th Century and the Jewish unwillingness to entertain that solution. Armenia and Azerbaijan still haven't sorted their shit over Nagorno-Karabakh. We're still pretending that Turkey is an ally.... despite them fighting and voting against the West on every single major international issue.

This world is broken and has been since October 24th, 1945. That is the date of foundation of the United Nations.

The "global rules-based order" isn't working. The modern capitalist system driven out of financial centres for the betterment of hedge funds is not working. Global trade that impoverishes western blue collar workers in favour of rich elites in communist dictatorships isn't working. Political dynasties and generations of politicians with the same surnames - are not working. Rule by "elites consulting with experts & celebrities" isn't working for Joe Average who doesn't give two fucks what Cate Blanchett thinks about refugees because he has no use for her in his life. International aid (transfer of wealth from poor in rich countries to wealthy people in poor counties) isn't working.

But most importantly - what isn't working is we are constantly being treated like absolute fucking mugs by our politicians who blatantly lie using a substitution formula. Take the example "we're not funding terrorism in Indonesia". Fuck off. We throw a few hundred million their way each and every goddamned year to fund their schools. That's money they don't have to spend on themselves and is free for them to use on terrorism and hate financing. Like allowing Aceh to run on Sharia law and raising (thereby) a generation of kids indoctrinated with Islamism. You know what that leads to? Ask the Syrians.

Ask some people who voted for Trump out of frustration. These are intelligent people, not rednecks. You can find them in all walks of life. They're fucking tired.

My cousin in New York works with a shitload of educated white-collars who voted for Trump (and she did as well). They're sick of being threatened with prosecution for misgendering someone with a mental issue (City of New York recognises 38 genders, misgendering someone lands you in court). They're sick of throwing money at wars where basically it's a case of "pick your asshole". They don't have any faith in the post-2008 financial order.

And Trump is the guy they voted for because he was a breath of fresh air in an ossified political system where the only other choice was an elderly socialist and a scion of a political dynasty who had lived on Arab blood money through her foundation. He is still a fresh air. He hasn't started a war or expanded one. He is firmly on the side of the US and has told allies not pulling their weight to fuck off.

I know this doesn't gel with a lot of Atomicans, and maybe you guys are on the side of the angels... but Trump is the result of frustration with 70 years of financial authoritarianism, fascism and no-solutions "rules-based global order".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hey leonid

 

how's your man scomo doing in the driver's seat ?

i temper my acceptance of your assessment of trump with the memory of your prior consideration of our current pm as a good option

 

 

being tired of the status quo is not a sound basis for stable government  (to paraphrase monty python); replacing a known incompetent with a lesser proven incompetent doesn't mean you've improved the situation

 

the americans did it in an election, the liberals did it in a spill

 

the outcomes are equally woeful

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My man ScoMo is doing as fine as he can in a political party riven by absolute fucking stupidity and factionalism as a function of the last guy.

ScoMo is going to lose, we’ll have 3-6 years of Labor and then we’ll have a Trump-like figure cause we’re always half a decade behind the rest of the world.

Get ready.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well i guess you predicted scomo for pm, so i can but hope your further crystal ball effort above is a complete fail - as for "fine as he can"... well, that's probably true

you can't polish a turd

 

 

3-6 years of labor is a given

 

the rise of antipodean trump would suggest that the youth of today who gain suffrage in the intervening half decade will vote for an uber conservative / overlord leader - and as our voter is both compulsory and for a local set of candidates rather than the leader of the country, my prediction is you are wrong

 

but we can have that debate later i expect... as one of my patients beautifully once stated "we'll burn that bridge when we come to it"

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should also point out that Trump is not a blip. Every year some asshole on TV keeps yabbering on about how whites won’t form a majority, in x years and the day of the Republicans is over.

That’s real cute.

Here’s another statistic: by 2040, 70% of ‘muricans will live in 15 states.

That means 30% of the population will get to pick 70 out of 100 Senators. This is why the red states are becoming redder.

Here’s another truism - he’s not loyal. What do you reckon happens in 2020 if he thinks he can’t win? He will dump Pence and run a ticket with Nikki Haley. Indian-American female.

This is not a stupid man. This is a guy who has managed to make his name synonymous with wealth, pop culture, and now he has taken the blue-collar constituency away from the so-called worker’s party + got a larger share of minority votes than Romney.

Every single person thus far has underestimated Trump. You’re all doing it. And where are they?

Every leader that has been spruiked in the press as the new leader of the free world is nowhere to be seen. Trudeau, Canada’s Bieber is diminished after trying to be all things to everyone. Merkel has stepped down and handing over in full knowledge of the debacle caused by her willingness to suffer an effective migrant third-world invasion of Germany. Macron is fucked three ways from Sunday trying to simultaneously jump the shark and disappear up his own asshole on costs of living and climate change.

Instead we have ascendants and remnants of the old right such as Bolsonaro, Orban, Kurz, Trump, Modi, Netanyahu, Salvini/Conte, Duterte, Zeman. We have an EU that might be taken by nationalist-populist parties at the next election and so powerless that its representative has been told to politely go fuck herself by Netanyahu, even though the EU is his biggest trading partner - and that has resulted in nothing but more admiration for him not just in Israel but in the European populist circles. 

The world is very very broken and people are very very fucking tired of it.

 

[“the rise of antipodean trump would suggest that the youth of today who gain suffrage in the intervening half decade will vote for an uber conservative / overlord leader - and as our voter is both compulsory and for a local set of candidates rather than the leader of the country, my prediction is you are wrong“]

 

Fair comment. My riposte is the youth of yesterday voted for Rudd, a populist grand-poobah of assholes that looms so large that even Malcolm Turnbull’s ego couldn’t hope to match it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

politics doesn't decide much

 

it's the floor show on what used to be the ship of state, which is now the bulk carrier of corporations - the players on the stage are light entertainment, but they don't steer the vessel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, scruffy1 said:

politics doesn't decide much

 

it's the floor show on what used to be the ship of state, which is now the bulk carrier of corporations - the players on the stage are light entertainment, but they don't steer the vessel

 

On that you and I are in more agreement than not. The tech titans carry more info about us than our closest friends and family.

Loss making corporations take public money and cash from hedge funds gottent through decapitating national economies of developing nations, while underpaying workers and making them work in gulag-like conditions.

Don’t get me wrong - I’ve not turned into a socialist. I’ve just gained some perspective that we lost control of sensible capitalism somewhere and now have a rule by corporate elites who dictate our immigration policy as “good for the economy” but forget to mention that it’s only they that get richer while wages stagnate and housing and other infrastructure is exacerbated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Leonid said:

I should also point out that Trump is not a blip. Every year some asshole on TV keeps yabbering on about how whites won’t form a majority, in x years and the day of the Republicans is over.

That’s real cute.

Here’s another statistic: by 2040, 70% of ‘muricans will live in 15 states.

That means 30% of the population will get to pick 70 out of 100 Senators. This is why the red states are becoming redder.

Here’s another truism - he’s not loyal. What do you reckon happens in 2020 if he thinks he can’t win? He will dump Pence and run a ticket with Nikki Haley. Indian-American female.

This is not a stupid man. This is a guy who has managed to make his name synonymous with wealth, pop culture, and now he has taken the blue-collar constituency away from the so-called worker’s party + got a larger share of minority votes than Romney.

Every single person thus far has underestimated Trump. You’re all doing it. And where are they?

Every leader that has been spruiked in the press as the new leader of the free world is nowhere to be seen. Trudeau, Canada’s Bieber is diminished after trying to be all things to everyone. Merkel has stepped down and handing over in full knowledge of the debacle caused by her willingness to suffer an effective migrant third-world invasion of Germany. Macron is fucked three ways from Sunday trying to simultaneously jump the shark and disappear up his own asshole on costs of living and climate change.

Instead we have ascendants and remnants of the old right such as Bolsonaro, Orban, Kurz, Trump, Modi, Netanyahu, Salvini/Conte, Duterte, Zeman. We have an EU that might be taken by nationalist-populist parties at the next election and so powerless that its representative has been told to politely go fuck herself by Netanyahu, even though the EU is his biggest trading partner - and that has resulted in nothing but more admiration for him not just in Israel but in the European populist circles. 

The world is very very broken and people are very very fucking tired of it.

 

[“the rise of antipodean trump would suggest that the youth of today who gain suffrage in the intervening half decade will vote for an uber conservative / overlord leader - and as our voter is both compulsory and for a local set of candidates rather than the leader of the country, my prediction is you are wrong“]

 

Fair comment. My riposte is the youth of yesterday voted for Rudd, a populist grand-poobah of assholes that looms so large that even Malcolm Turnbull’s ego couldn’t hope to match it.

 

Heer Heer ?

True story bro, but be careful of telling too many truths or using too many facts, it could trigger Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×