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SceptreCore

Are we ready for war?

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Don’t get me wrong - walls won’t hold against a military force but they do hold against invaders.

Isrel is another case in point - their wall with Egypt in the Sinai has dropped African infiltration to 0.

As you say - there are ways around the wall - all vastly more difficult, violent or expensive. That’s why it should be built.

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9 hours ago, Leonid said:

Was Obama a competent president? Bush 43?

If you imagine they went for and got the job to benefit the citizens, then nope they were not very competent at all.

If you think they were there to help usher in the new world order, and implement the policies of the global elite, then they did their job just fine and dandy. ?

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?

The NWO is getting a bit old Walt, but they neither of them assisted much in reducing the wealth divide, nor is Trump.

Speaking of whom, this piece is what could happen - pity, I was going to write a novel on the premise of a war in the U.S. that never truly resolved the divide in the country.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/the-second-us-civil-war/news-story/ec43b36de5f5f9f11e478a8fc71ea2dc

Cheers

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Under Trump real non-managerial wage growth has increased for the first time in a generation. Not by much. But by at least a little.

Can't have that. Let's impeach the motherfucker (to quote on particular fifth columnist in Congress).

Imagine full employment and real wage growth? Why blacks might leave the plantation (like Australian aborigines slowly are) and shift to the right!

Edited by Leonid
Clarification
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New World Order has just had a name change to Globalisation because New World Order sounded a bit to authoritarian.

Globalisation is where unelected Billionaires and Trillionars become the New Aristocracy.

We are to them cattle/sheep.

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I guess it depends where the stats come from Leo, if from a Trump tweet I'd take it with a grain or six of salt:

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/one-week-seven-lies-donald-trumps-claims-about-immigration-drugs-and-the-shutdown-debunked/news-story/4cd595c6360324ae459069497f5e92b6

Politicians lie, for many reasons, but Trump seems to make a career of it...

Cheers

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1 hour ago, chrisg said:

if from a Trump tweet I'd take it with a grain or six of salt:

They redefined 'grain' as multiple metric tonnes, did they?  Shit, I can never keep up with the ISC.

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Crystal ball gazers often just amuse me:

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/chinas-population-to-peak-at-144bn-in-2029-then-decline-says-report/news-story/64c6b5bd3138bb2a9218cce83fc2fb52

China does not have full employment, probably never will although education initiatives are seeking to improve that but increasing automation and advances in AI are pretty much certain to address the matter.

What is the most likely outcome, caused by a combination of factors not just working population changes, is that the cost of Chinese production will rise bringing the cost of goods produced there more into line with what they can be produced for elsewhere.

That's actually healthy for the global economy but better get in whilst Chinese goods are still cheap, or hang in there for the next boom nation or region.

It won't be Asia, most all nations in the region are well on the way, more likely South America or Africa.

 

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Well, yeah, but successive Chinese leaders have been saying that for decades.

I had never realised until doing some business in China that quietly they talk about "Greater China" being composed of China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Officially China and Taiwan don't have much at all to do with each other trade-wise, in reality a lot of Taiwanese tech goes to China, either via SK or Japan.

Asian companies are rather pragmatic when it comes to making a profit, don't let politics get in the way ?

The real driver has been Japan, as it became too expensive in labor terms to manufacture in Japan itself under MITI Japan, although really megacorps like Matsushita, Mitsubishi and Toshiba did not need any government assistance to move their manufacturing to China, first as "kits" but a lot of Taiwanese components made up the products and as SK advanced its tech so they found their way into products made in China as well.

Now a lot if high tech manufacturing is done in China itself of course but a lot of R&D cooperation continues between the nations.

Cheers

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1 hour ago, chrisg said:

Well, yeah, but successive Chinese leaders have been saying that for decades.

I knew you were going to say that.

But I think it's obvious to see that with a Chinese militarised SCS, something they just took... they aren't just reeling off rhetoric. And if they do, the US and the West will have to make some reaction. And like you said about "greater China", as far as Jinping is concerned the Korean peninsula belongs to him too. NK is China's controlled, but unstable partner. Everyone focusing on the nut job wielding the gun while someone else robs the bank. 

China is boldly taking liberties that will eventually have to be dealt with.

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31 minutes ago, SceptreCore said:

 as far as Jinping is concerned the Korean peninsula belongs to him too.

It will be entertaining to watch China get tired of Kim's bullshit and crush his regime.  And that's about the only upside to that scenario.

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?

 

Well, mainland China has been denying the existence of the Republic of China ever since the revolution when Chiang Kai Shek fled there after his defeat. There's been the odd skirmish over the years but Taiwan can look after itself.

China has been making historical claims for half of Asia for a long , long time, about the only country it does not claim is Thailand which has been a monarchy for centuries. The claims are rather ridiculous really, various wars and the retreat of the French out of Asia created or re-created the significant nations of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia etc but at the height of the Chinese Empire it nominally occupied most all of Asia. However the influence of Beijing was pretty much non-existent very far from the capital.

China hasn't really "occupied" the SCS, just given itself some bases, it is just as valid to say they are providing protection to the shipping, which is mostly going in and out of China itself, as to say they have expanded their territory.

They would be VERY foolish to attempt any naval force projection in the Sea, half of the top ten naval nations on earth surround or patrol the area including the USN. Taiwan, SK, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia also have a naval presence. The Chinese navy is numerically large but vastly outgunned in real terms by not just the USN but Taiwan is in that top ten as well.

Cheers

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 9:27 AM, chrisg said:

?

China hasn't really "occupied" the SCS, just given itself some bases, it is just as valid to say they are providing protection to the shipping, which is mostly going in and out of China itself, as to say they have expanded their territory.

They would be VERY foolish to attempt any naval force projection in the Sea, half of the top ten naval nations on earth surround or patrol the area including the USN. Taiwan, SK, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia also have a naval presence. The Chinese navy is numerically large but vastly outgunned in real terms by not just the USN but Taiwan is in that top ten as well.

Cheers

Well in my definition, creating military bases in an area is occupation. And to any other asian nation in the area their claims are now irrelevant. And attempt to claim them could result in conflict. China says it's their sea

By constantly testing each other, one of the two will have to call the others bluff at some point.

US destroyer sails in disputed South China Sea amid trade talks

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26 minutes ago, SceptreCore said:

Anti-semitism is absolutely despicable and should never be tolerated, nor should any form of racism.

Damned difficult to stop though, legislation can just call attention and polarise opinion.

I lived and worked in Darwin years ago, a small hippy commune was next door to my office and I went in to see if it was ok to park my car there to avoid tickets - wardens are or were pretty feral in Darwin.

We had a simple negotiation and they invited me back for a chill session that evening. I don't do drugs but I swear I had a high from being in a room with a bunch of pot smokers, great evening nonetheless, great music.

One of the guys was Jewish, from London so we had a chat about my sort of home town then he began chatting about his time on the road doing the hippy overland - can't really do that any more. In Germany he was having a meal in a restaurant and the owner, an elderly also Jewish guy brought him out some rugelash, delicious pastries, very popular in Israel. They fell to talking and it transpired this elderly guy had remained in Germany throughout the war, never noticed by the Nazis but lots of his friends and family had gone to the camps. Just kept his head down but he must have been in a minority. The next day they made a pilgrimage to Dachau, been there myself, the atmosphere is incredibly poignant, Jews often feel compelled to go there - the Jewish people will never forget.

They banned anti-semtism in Germany post war but it still raises its ugly head now and again. The Germans are rather ruthless in stomping it out but still it persists.

Just why is a mystery to me, I find Jewish people some of the most wonderful people and many of my friends are either Jewish or Sabras, native born Israelis, many not even particularly religious but very respectful of those in their midst who are.

I understand your concern SC, but I also understand China wanting to secure their maritime borders. I don't really regard it an occupation when no one lives on those rocks, which are in many ways a military joke but the media has, as usual made a field day of the "provocation." It doesn't help when senior Chinese military persons get quoted boasting about carrier-killer weapons but the Chinese are not foolish enough as to attack a carrier group - America's wrath would be immediate and far more than China could cope with even if it did not go nuclear.

Calmer heads will prevail.

Cheers

 

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At least we have safe harbour now. There is now a penalty for killing Jews.

The funny thing is there’s two types of anti-semitism: good old white pride, and anti-Zionism.

What the two strains don’t understand is that they should hate each other. White nationalists force Jews to leave the diaspora and go to Israel, confirming the narrative that only the Jewish State can protect Jews.

And where are Jews gonna go in Israel? The cheapest places: the Jewish settlements of Judea and Samaria, known by their invader name - the West Bank. Thereby under-mining anti-Zionists.

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7 hours ago, chrisg said:

Anti-semitism is absolutely despicable and should never be tolerated, nor should any form of racism.

Damned difficult to stop though, legislation can just call attention and polarise opinion.

You got that right. It's unnatural. It's something that is taught. It's inherently evil and narrow minded.

7 hours ago, chrisg said:

They banned anti-semtism in Germany post war but it still raises its ugly head now and again. The Germans are rather ruthless in stomping it out but still it persists.

Just why is a mystery to me, I find Jewish people some of the most wonderful people and many of my friends are either Jewish or Sabras, native born Israelis, many not even particularly religious but very respectful of those in their midst who are.

Yes the Germans do very well to make sure that is not what they are known for ever again. If only all racism was attacked with the same fervor.

From my limited perspective, historically speaking, the Jews have made success their culture. They work hard and work together and it gets results. Even the secular Jews. Then their success... like the success achieved by any one, race or creed, are envied and hated by the unsuccessful. You look at the Nazi's both old and new. They are the disenfranchised, the losers, the disturbed. Those who attribute their woes outwardly instead of inward. But there's also those who have been taught to hate and be ignorant. They collect together like muck and debris in a storm drain. Once they've built up enough we start to notice them because they're creating a problem, and like history has shown if left unchecked they can create a really really big problem. Now we are seeing nationalism resurging in different parts of the world, even Australia evidently. Heck... look at what almost happened in France.

7 hours ago, chrisg said:

I understand your concern SC, but I also understand China wanting to secure their maritime borders. I don't really regard it an occupation when no one lives on those rocks, which are in many ways a military joke but the media has, as usual made a field day of the "provocation." It doesn't help when senior Chinese military persons get quoted boasting about carrier-killer weapons but the Chinese are not foolish enough as to attack a carrier group - America's wrath would be immediate and far more than China could cope with even if it did not go nuclear.

Well... now any one of those Asian nations will have to declare war with China basically if they wanted to claim those waters.

And yeah, I agree that China would not be in a present state be able to take on the US in a battle, naval or otherwise, but they might be able to if the world fell back into a world war and the US had to fight on many fronts to protect it's interests. And if that doesn't happen it might happen in the future, China is rapidly expanding their military. I'm just pointing out that we can see the US in decline and China on the rise. History tells us that when this happens, to the two have to face off at some point... in some way. But we can leave this point for now I think. ?

31 minutes ago, Leonid said:

The funny thing is there’s two types of anti-semitism: good old white pride, and anti-Zionism.

What the two strains don’t understand is that they should hate each other. White nationalists force Jews to leave the diaspora and go to Israel, confirming the narrative that only the Jewish State can protect Jews.

And where are Jews gonna go in Israel? The cheapest places: the Jewish settlements of Judea and Samaria, known by their invader name - the West Bank. Thereby under-mining anti-Zionists.

Could you elaborate on that a bit more please? I'm not quite clear on what you're saying here about the two groups.

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It's why nukes are such a game changer SC. China actually doesn't have that many, they simply proved, decades ago, that they had the capability, in a way part of the emergence of China as a world power again.

In my view the U.S. has, their current insane politics aside, simply slowed up on military spending, which had, during the first Cold War (strange to think of it that way but we are in CWII) reached insane levels but their capability remains massive and they are now investing again. Not so much in nukes, nor really are China, or Russia, although the U.S. rather quietly recently announced a significant upgrade to the B61 gravity bomb making it far more accurate and with better control over variable yield, but in every conventional weapons area the U.S. is updating. That includes everything from smarter infantry level weapons up to new stealth bombers, new submarine builds, far better network-centric battle capability than anyone else has, enhancements to the M1 tank, new subs, replacements for the ageing Ticonderoga cruisers-an awesome naval weapon in their own right and of course the F-35.

There is a significant difference in the way the U.S. builds new weapons systems, whilst the technical details remain secret they otherwise develop in the full glare of GAO over-sight, informed criticism and tight force integration.

The other super powers just announce new capabilities in a chest beating exercise that almost always belies the reality of the new weapons' capability.

It is notable that thus far the U.S. has not done much to enhance the Minuteman or Trident ICBM systems, they hardly need to, the CEP of both is so good they don't look to hit the target ships during their frequent test launches into Kwajalein Atoll any more, haven't for years, it was costing too many targets. Neither Russia nor China has ever demonstrated that level of accuracy, they rely on bigger air-burst war heads.

In a way the latest B-61 improvements could be seen as escalation, they can drop the yield down and dig out deep facilities with a nuke as easily as they can with a MOAB but in the end they are just sending a message "don't fuck with us."

The F-35, that I was openly critical of for a long time has matured at last and brings a whole new dimension to air warfare - no one else has anything like it.

A long way of saying the U.S. is not actually a declining force at all, whatever the media says.

Yes, I agree, subject well. discussed ?

Leo is the expert on the Jewish spectrum but I do know what he means.

Cheers

 

 

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2 hours ago, chrisg said:

It is notable that thus far the U.S. has not done much to enhance the Minuteman or Trident ICBM systems, they hardly need to

Don't they have computer control systems from the 1970's and the launch sites are poorly maintained?

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Bit of a myth SC.

The critical control systems are valve based, because valves are far more resistant to EMP than even hardened solid state electronics. The systems are immaculately maintained but ironically for a while a couple of decades ago they were using Chinese sourced valves in parts of the systems because valve production almost ceased outside China and the Eastern Block. Again ironically it was the resurgence of valve based audiphile hi-fi that revived interest in and production of valves in the U.S.

The silos themselves don't really need a lot of maintenance but the missiles are kept in top condition and a round routinely pulled for test firing, usually from White Sands. Minuteman IIIs are solid fuel so maintenance is minimal and since they are effectively stored in hermetic silos they have a very long shelf life.

I not sure if you can even vaguely poorly maintain a boomer sub - the USN are maintenance fanatics ?

Cheers

 

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7 minutes ago, SceptreCore said:

Alright... I'll shut up now

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No need mate.

Thing is I've worked, only a few times full time, but still episodically, in defense analysis for a very long time, so I still get to see a lot of documents that are not common knowledge ?

Interesting discussion, and one well worth having.

Cheers

 

 

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1 hour ago, chrisg said:

the missiles are kept in top condition

Related: People often wonder why they keep manufacturing new nukes.  Because the old ones have a shelf life is why - eventually you have to take 'em out and replace them with things that will work.  (Yeah, I know you know that, Chris.  Talking to the audience, here.)

Two reasons:

1. The chemicals which make up the trigger explosives can go peculiar.  Mostly that's down to humidity, but in sealed silos it's just good ol' oxidation.

2. The fissile material is...well, radioactive.  It has a half-life.  ie: After n years, only half of it is still boomy (depending on isotope, the other half is probably lead).  These things are only just supercritical when triggered at the date of manufacture, so even a tiny loss means they don't work any more.

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