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SceptreCore

Are we ready for war?

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2 hours ago, chrisg said:

Probably true Flip although not the case with my family.

They came out late 60s and have never had any inclination to go back. A couple of my siblings, and myself, have visited the U.K. but none of us have any yen to go back, we're Australian, everyone of us naturalised.

Cheers

 

It helps that coming from the UK you speak the language and have most of the same holidays and similar traditions though. 

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2 hours ago, Leonid said:

Which is why almost every terrorist in this country that is behind bars is a second-gen Lebanese Aussie.

Oh hang on...

But yes - I 100% agree with fliptopia. The issue is that when you import maladjusted backwards cultures - a lot of them tend to go backwards. Not forwards. IE the second generation feels more alienated than the first.

But I believe that to be a problem of society. We focus on multiculturalism, we NEED assimilation, to a greater or lesser extent.

 

My feeling on this is that with the second gen, is that some of them go out to become part of community, get the whole distrust thing (maybe because of the actions of others in that community) and fall back in with a bunch of other angry  young people who think that's how life is always going to be. 

Honestly, when you have a member of parliament attending white supremacy rallies and so much antimuslim sentiment around you might feel like you will never be accepted. 

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51 minutes ago, fliptopia said:

It helps that coming from the UK you speak the language and have most of the same holidays and similar traditions though. 

?

 

True, still get annoyed and embarrassed by the number of whinging poms I run into though  ?

Cheers

 

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On 1/15/2019 at 7:45 PM, fliptopia said:

Honestly, when you have a member of parliament attending white supremacy rallies and so much antimuslim sentiment around you might feel like you will never be accepted. 

The problem isn’t the feeling. It’s the reaction to this feeling.

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3 minutes ago, Leonid said:

The problem isn’t the feeling. It’s the reaction to this feeling.

Well obviously. But everything we do comes from feelings and belief. 

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18 minutes ago, fliptopia said:

Well obviously. But everything we do comes from feelings and belief. 

Indeed. Which is why after a century of genocide Jews are exploding in european kindergartens, Roma are driving trucks through pedestrian malls and Armenians are shooting up theatres in Constantinople

Edited by Leonid

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On 20/01/2019 at 2:34 PM, Leonid said:

 and Armenians are shooting up theatres in Constantinople

i misread that as americans, and though that behaviour is not uncommon in the states, i doubt they even know where the bosporus straight is

 

that made me look again

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8 hours ago, SceptreCore said:

Sounds more like American paranoia than anything else. The USN can roam the seas at will but China has to stay bottled up ?

Interestingly I read a piece recently that rated the nuclear nations in terms of being responsible. China topped the list with only unmated missiles and warheads in modest numbers, not much interest in free-fall weapons and no nuclear weapons on their submarines.

China seems really to be a bogeyman, the world buys their increasingly better goods in vast numbers, the country is relatively safe to visit and their citizens travel the globe . Decidedly different to cold war Russia or the way that country is headed again.

Keep a close eye, sure, lose sleep ? No.

Cheers

 

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and voice automated phone answering.. where the secret to getting a person to answer quickly rather than endless prompts is to swear enthusiastically into the mouthpiece whenever it demands you state which option

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8 hours ago, chrisg said:

China seems really to be a bogeyman

I think it to be naive to suggest that they're just a passive power, and that it's all good. China is an authoritarian autocracy. The second largest economy in the world and the largest by buying power. They're making rapid advances in technology and military expansion. China will become the new super power that exerts its influence, and The US will either challenge it with its own might or drift into the history books.

Not only that... but we can see that these powers of the Eastern bloc, with similar interests, are cooperating. This makes it hard for the Western democratic bloc to maintain its version of order. China, Russia, Iran, Syria... vocally giving their support, as well as by other means, to Venezuela's Maduro, which the US is now trying to stabilize. You can see the games being played here. There's something going on at every front. The US is being confounded at everything it does. The East are determined to make a whole to punch through somewhere because it can't all be managed at once. China is the strongest of this spear. The trade war, I think, is just precursor for what is to come. A defacto cold war is already on. Who'd have thought five years ago that we'd see a US presidential election influenced by Russia, with the winning candidate being investigated as a threat to national security, an agent for a foreign power?

The European Union... is essentially in disarray, only France and Germany are keeping it together and the rest are becoming far right nationalists that will break up the Union. This might just leave the US, UK, France and Germany as the only ones to maintain the status quo... and France and Germany are seeing signs of political upheaval. We're are not going to recognise this world in 20 years time.

Edited by SceptreCore

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No doubt there are massive changes afoot in the world, had to come with the events of the past decades.

China though, they are still morphing really, the country never was really communist, at least not in the Marxist sense, but that began to erode after Mao and especially when the country opened up to international commerce. The present leadership has some inclinations to the old ways but they are old men really who are as with most Chinese leaderships more afraid of the massive peasant population than any surrounding or even remote foreign states.

Sure they are modernising their military, any nation of their wealth would, but most of the fear-mongering is U.S. media beat-up aided by stupid statements from Washington. The Trump administration is poor enough at foreign relations with Europe let alone really understanding China.

Something could always go pear-shaped but China is not looking for war, whatever Washington says.

Cheers

 

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On 1/31/2019 at 2:15 PM, chrisg said:

China is not looking for war, whatever Washington says

That may be true... Perhaps Washington is though? 

China's involvement in data collection through state owned or supported businesses is dodgy though, let alone blatant IP theft, and that doesn't help their case. And it does seem that they are strange bedfellows with US enemies to frustrate US interests around the globe. Fair enough... that's human history since it was recorded... but it does paint China into the picture of antagonists. US influence is definitely on the decline, while China and Russia's fills the void. And the way those countries operate makes that a scary prospect.

Of course, it's hard to call either one the bad guy on either side. But you could make a case for worse guy. Especially with China giving its citizens social scores, that's just Orwellian dystopia come real.

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The U.S. is somewhat on the wane, about time, the tensions of the Cold War era meant they built up into the world cop and the largest military on earth with presence globally.

The collapse of the U.S.S.R. left all that infrastructure that had built up flailing around so what happened ? They went off sticking their nose in wherever they felt like and exacerbating an already extant terrorist problem that isn't and was not going to go quietly but it is easy to argue that they made it worse.

The resurgence of Russia and the emergence of China has given the military mavens in Washington all the reason they needed to play military catch-up for the reductions that had begun in the brief, historically, gap that had Russia pretty much on the ropes, China rising and what had been Eastern Europe getting national identities re-established, not always peacefully..

It's not in the interests of the world at all to return to the Cold War period but that is where we are at, in a changed landscape.

Russia is back to a condition normal of paranoia enhanced by not having the buffer nations of the Warsaw Block between it and the rest of Europe and whilst it might be cosying up to China really it is both jealous of and fearful  of that emergent nation. A perfect breeding ground for a psychotic but cunning lunatic like Putin to arise and set about sending the regime bankrupt on grandiose military build-ups-again. 

China though, it's different, what they really care about is keeping the people fed, a non-trivial  task that has led to revolt from the hinterlands in the past. The biggest power block in China is the PLA, a rather tightly integrated military organisation that is not only that, it has influence and interests all across the nation, it owns hotels by the score, is behind many of the emergent megacorps and is not an entity that is totally within political control, it IS political.

However the PLA is not really about threatening other nations, China has enough trouble keeping itself under control without taking on other countries. A lot of the PLA is as focused on internal security as it is on border protection. In large measure the Chinese leadership has to keep the PLA on side, it does that through a deal of sabre rattling, insignificant but satisfying to the military leadership projects such as the artificial islands and exerting what is not particularly unreasonable influence in the South China Sea. Think about it, that body of water is the shore of China, not of the U.S.

They also had a rather urgent need to modernise their military, it was pre the Iron Rice Bowl pretty much stuck in the fifties.

However because China takes those sort of actions they are perceived as a threat.

Really ? the U.S. has been on that path for decades but because another nation does the same people want to respond and be fearful - frankly that's ridiculous.

They may well become the new super-power, does it matter ?

The U.S has been at the centre of an awful lot of atrocious behaviour during its time in the ascendance, China could hardly do worse and to repeat their politics is not that of Russia, which is a different topic, the country is now filling with capitalists.

I find it ironic that most every Western Nation has embraced China as their biggest trading partner and now views them with suspicion, laughable.

China is a complex country but not a stupid one.

Cheers

 

 

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