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Kimmo

What a joke

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10 hours ago, chrisg said:

In 1938 no one had nukes....

 

Cheers

 

No, but there was a radical Germany with set plans and only an Obama-type could mistake that for a peace-making time.

 

Iran is itching for a war or at least to have nukes so that it can assert itself even more malevolently.

 

If it’s war, better now. While they don’t have nukes.

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Hmm.

 

I'd prefer insurrection, my take on that country is that it is ripe for civil war, but the CIA messed around with it once, not sure I want to let them loose again, perhaps it has  to take its own course.

 

I do agree though, they are seemingly itching for war, which shows how little they know about the U.S. or about their own people in the end.

 

I don't think you should mark Obama down though, he had a crap hand to play with and did a pretty ok job overall - Iran was fucked from the day Khomeini got off the 'plane.

 

I don't really see how Mr "Deal a Day" has improved things.

 

Cheers

 

 

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So, Obama got a crap hand... how much of a good hand would you say the next guy got ?

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16 minutes ago, chrisg said:

he had a crap hand to play with and did a pretty ok job overall - Iran was fucked from the day Khomeini got off the 'plane.

 

What eveln said.

 

And uh... Obama did nothing about Iran until the last moments of his presidency - when it was already too late and centrifuges were spinning.

 

He presided over the modern parallel of 1933-1938 and bought "peace for our time", which we know is nothing but delayed war while  the enemy arms.

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Hmm.

 

I quite agree, I do not however see that Obama could have done much more than he did and most everyone across multiple nations involved in the agreement agrees with me.

 

What Trump has done is decidedly dangerous - whilst the deal was in force the Iranians were actually behaving themselves and admitting observers and keeping enrichment below 2%. Now, being no longer bound by the agreement they are at and above 20%.

 

If Trump wants to take war to them then he had best get a move on, they are becoming more and more aggressive by the day, harassing and capturing tankers in the Straits and this incident with Syria that I mentioned above shows how little they care for keeping their word now.

 

Whether or not he wants to risk war in an election year, that's another thing all together. America has had about enough of these limited wars and as I mentioned whilst it gets little  attention the country is still engaged in Afghanistan, Iraq and seemingly despite promises unable to disengage in Syria.

 

The American war machine, if let loose, can deal with that but at the moment the engagements are lack-lustre.

 

I've said before, they might as well get out of at least Afghanistan, no one ever wins a war there, the people would rather die to a man than surrender. Iraq is just as bad, it is the open face of a war on terror and Syria is just a mess that should be left well alone.

 

However Iran does have and is pursuing a nuclear programme that simply cannot be allowed, so why is he hesitating if you are so sure that is what he wants ?

 

He has all he needs pretty much in-theatre already, there are two carrier groups in the gulf, B-2s in England, a quiet build-up happening in the UAE. A surgical strike, not the same at all as Desert Storm, which by the by was nearly 30 years ago, is what is needed to take the nuclear toys away from the Iranians, or more properly from the Mullahs.

 

He could call that tomorrow but what would the blow-back be ?

 

Contrary to what many seem to believe there is ample evidence that Iran sponsors terrorism, if left as just a surgical strike we would have to expect retaliation in that form. So on its own removing the nuclear facilities is not enough, the head of the snake needs to be cut off - the Theocracy itself destroyed.

 

It is very difficult to take the temperature of a country as isolated as Iran has become but I am inclined to believe that there is a seething under-current within the country that does not support the extremist Islam that they are shackled with. Under the Shah, whilst in reality he was pretty much an American puppet who via Savak did some terrible things to his people, they had freedoms that are becoming distant memories. The return of Khomeini was initially well received but a few decades under the madness of the Mullahs has woken a lot of people up.

 

From being a unique PERSIAN nation, separate from the Arabs, whom they have little time for, hence the Iran/Iraq war that killed over a million of them, they have become a pariah state.

 

The Mullahs declared that war, nobody won it, it was a meat-grinder, the people should have risen up then but if you want to believe in big conspiracies and on this occasion I do, the war killed a great many of the young men that could have seized back control of the nation.

 

There is a new generation there now, hopefully they see how utterly demented the Mullahs are and, with a nudge from the U.S. kick them out for good.

 

But it's a gamble for Trump and I'm sorry to say that I am not at all sure that he even knows what game he is playing let alone what cards he is holding.

 

Yes Obama did take a pacifist stance, it may have been wrong, but it was done with good intention, it may even have worked, but Trump nixed that when he tore up the deal, now he has to sort it out.

 

Can he ?

 

We will have to wait and see.

 

Frankly I'm not holding my breath, I do not think he is the man for the job.

 

You do - so ok, let's see him put his money where his mouth is.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, chrisg said:

What Trump has done is decidedly dangerous

 

Said every peacenik to Churchill as he dialled up war with Hitler.

 

42 minutes ago, chrisg said:

whilst the deal was in force the Iranians were actually behaving themselves and admitting observers and keeping enrichment below 2%

 

Cuntry (not a spelling mistake) spent 30 years lying about nuke development while ample evidence showed otherwise.

 

And now you believe them AFTER THE JCPOA GRANTED THEM THE RIGHTS TO EXCLUDE ZONES FROM INSPECTION?

 

Are you fucken for real, Chris?

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Perfectly real, sure they lie a lot, so does Trump, the evidence only ever showed that they had a nuclear programme and that it was at a rudimentary level but sufficient to develop nuclear fuel- weapons grade is a whole other deal.

 

Now after the deal is off the table they are blatantly TELLING us that they are over the 20% hurdle.

 

I cannot see that as an improvement.

 

JCPOA faced the same unmitigated  frustrations as any other set of nuclear inspectors has from the get-go, you know the other side is lying every step of the way but regardless you can get coarse data and that is quite sufficient to show that they are basically keeping to their word.

 

You seem to want to continually make comparisons to the long-past Leo - it's a different ball-park now, we cannot let these guys get even one bomb, so I'm suggesting time to strike, even preemptive but Trump seems to think he can talk his way out of it - he cant - they will not listen.

 

I do wonder about duality though - granted the Mullahs are nuts, but I'd suggest Netanyahu can sometimes be perceived as not dealing with a full deck.

 

Dimona has been there since the 60s, it is an open secret that Israel has nukes - have they ever been inspected ?

 

I am in the main completely unconcerned over Israel having nukes, whilst they can be very adventurous ie. knocking out the Baghdad reactor, they behave in a responsible manner. I've no such assurance with the Mullahs, especially as they have publicly stated their intent to wipe Israel off the face of the earth in some of their more aggressive rhetoric.

 

If they get closer to having a bomb though, and given the distances involved, I do not trust Netanyahu, if he is still in power, to not preempt in some manner, hopefully conventional. Despite my earlier comment I do not think it is off the table if Israel feels sufficiently threatened that they would not take steps.

 

That puts Trump in the box, he's tweaking the tail of the tiger, he has to put up or shut up - the latter being impossible to even conceive.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by chrisg

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2 hours ago, Jeruselem said:

So trump thinks people from the bahamas (who just had their country smashed by Dorian( are like ... all of them gang members?

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/donald-trump-warns-bahamas-hurricane-dorian-survivors-bad-people/11494830

The article states there are still people being looked for. Seems to me good practice to try and keep as good an account as possible of the comings and goings at this time. What's to say someone is deemed lost, is actually sitting safe somewhere else ? 

Also Jeruselem you be making a false statement in your post .Yes I know you think the POTUS is not worthy, but don't be exaggerating because of your dislike. Please 🙂

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On 09/09/2019 at 8:48 AM, chrisg said:

With Iran the gloves are off, they are no longer even really pretending that they are not working towards a bomb - time to take them out, not wait until they have the damned thing, or even close.

So much for arguing against Leo's point.

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1 minute ago, Nich... said:

So much for arguing against Leo's point.

 

Of course the current Iran is the way it is because of past US meddling in Iran ...

  • Like 1

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No it isn't.  The US supported the Shah in the 1970s and he wanted progress as in adopting western values and permissiveness.

Since he was deposed the place has been heading back to the dark ages, and after Khomeni died if anything they only accelerated their descent.

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Yeah Ry, that is the truth although there was quite an under-current of activism throughout his reign that was very ruthlessly dealt with by Savak, but what they did, despicable as it was, is chilld's-play compared what goes on there now.

 

I'm not really arguing against Leo Nich ,more a question of whom is really to blame for where it is now at and I do not think that can be lumped squarely onto Obama . The reality is he obtained about the best deal that Iran was going to accept and they at least made some effort to abide by that agreement. Now Trump comes along believing he can do better, tears up the deal and suddenly we have tankers being seized on the high seas, the "Iranian Navy," glorified speedboats,  harassing a carrier group and with uranium enrichment declared to be accelerating we are looking at a war.

 

I do not see how Trump has improved things, I would suspect war is now in fact pretty much inevitable.

 

If that is what Iran wants then they genuinely are as insane as they make themselves appear, not that they will be as easy an opponent as Iraq but we are talking about two very different countries. To reiterate I have some deal of a belief that the majority of the population of Iran would be quite happy to see the back of the Mullahs but sweeping in there the way America usually does and inevitably gets bogged down is not the way to go about it. It needs finesse and if Trump in his usual manner thinks he knows best and tries to micro-manage it that is not what we will get.

 

I'm happy to be proven wrong but his track record does not show anything to suggest that I am.

 

Cheers

 

 

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Iran (aka Persia) was always country full of religious extremists since well ... biblical times. They won't change. It just got worse when the Sunni vs Shia rift started.

Edited by Jeruselem

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The fact of the matter is that Trump has probably accomplished more in 2 years than anyone else in the previous 40 with North Korea.

As for the other backward shitholes like Iran, Haiti, Venezeula etc, it's pretty much been a status quo with the occasional sabre rattling for most of this century.  But I have to agree that it's way better to take Iran's ability to make nukes away from it before it actually aquires them than have to deal with it after.

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I'd really like to agree Ry, but I cant, I think Kim is playing him for a fool.

 

Iran used to be a very beautiful place both J and Ry, but it did hide a dark underside.

 

Haiti does not really matter, Venezuela does and it was not so long ago that they were on friendly terms with the U.S. now the Russians are dropping in when they feel like it.

 

Cheers

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Nah, Kim and NK has allowed the circus act sorry, negotiations with Trump to hide their activities. The fact they are still firing missiles for fun means they don't care what USA threatens.

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5 hours ago, chrisg said:

I do not see how Trump has improved things, I would suspect war is now in fact pretty much inevitable.

 

I do not see how Churchill has improved things, I would suspect war is now in fact pretty much inevitable.

 

2 hours ago, Jeruselem said:

Nah, Kim and NK has allowed the circus act sorry, negotiations with Trump to hide their activities. The fact they are still firing missiles for fun means they don't care what USA threatens.

 

North Korea detonated their first nuclear warhead on a September 9th 2016. Obama was President.

 

They had tested nuclear payload as far back as 2003 in the Bush administration.

 

Not one new thing in the North Korean nuclear trajectory happened under Trump’s watch.

 

And yes, now that they have nukes - they can act as they please.

 

Iran should not get that benefit.

Edited by Leonid

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🙂

 

Part one is a tired old saw, and bullshit, the circumstances are only trivially aligned if at all.

 

The second part I completely agree with, with the proviso that I'd be much more concerned than you are about there not being any further NK nuclear tests.

 

It appears they have proven their weapon concept but it is a difficult path from putting a gadget down a hole to having something you can stick on the tip of a missile.

 

They don't much need to set off any more nukes, not until they have it down to weapons size, then prove THAT works.

 

I suggest that is what they are working on at the moment.

 

I repeat, Kim is playing Trump for the fool he is.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, chrisg said:

Part one is a tired old saw, and bullshit, the circumstances are only trivially aligned if at all.

 

 

Millenarian government that took over a country by shady means, believes in eradication of Jews and adheres to a master faith theology.

 

I totally see why they're only trivially aligned, if at all.

 

 

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There was nothing shady about the way Khomeini returned from exile, if that is what you mean.

 

It's a bit of a reach to compare Fascism to Islam, if it is in fact really Islam that the demented ones in Tehran practice, which I would dispute, the Quran has nothing much to say about much of what they do, if anything. They interpret it to suit their goals.

 

Cheers

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In other, possibly better news Trump has fired the Hawk John Bolton from the post of National Security Advisor.

 

Potentially that's a relief, the man would rather fight than negotiate any time - depends who Trump finds to replace him.

 

BTW, that' the 47th senior official to leave the Trump White House, the bucket must be getting rather empty...

 

Cheers

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