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chrisg

Problems with the 737MAX ?

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5 hours ago, scruffy1 said:

 

indeed

 

once he gets intubated at least he'll have to shut the fuck up

 

But can they tape up his thumbs so the don't move? 

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Don't know if this is good news for Boeing or not but at least it promises to clear the log-jam on one of their programmes, the KC-46 Tanker:

 

https://www.airforcemag.com/usaf-boeing-reach-plan-to-replace-kc-46s-problematic-remote-vision-system/?fbclid=IwAR2tuzxJPbxs3HMJOMqdgzy08TCYixhpU1k7Ru1xFD-LjZ4fKBj47Qp6AQc

 

Just what the buyout offer Boeing is making to its employees is is not made clear in the article at all.

 

The problems with the tanker, to be fair, are not really of Boeing's making. The Air Force had insisted on a remote operation capability for the probe because everything else about the basis of the aircraft, the 767, was good but it would have not been a good airframe to position a boom operator in the tail of as has been the case with the earlier -135 and KC-10 aircraft. It COULD be done but not well. Further the airforce have the lofty goal of eventually automating probe refueling although its not really clear what the path to that is or how they expect it to work.

 

Put bluntly the tech in 2001 which was born out of developing the project bid in the 90s was just not up to the requirement, now it is and there is a better than even chance that it can be done cheaper now, and better, than ever before. That may make it a win-win for Boeing and the Air Force.

 

Really Boeing has been playing very much hardball with the Air Force because not only do they have by far the most experience with tankers but they have the only US airframes that can be adapted. There is no way the USAF would be allowed to go off-shore and buy the Voyager for example.

 

Cheers

 

 

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Here's some detail on the buyout offer:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/02/boeing-buyout-layoffs/#33b067bc3643

 

Essentially looking to reduce head count. They may well get a lot of takers, they have not had to lay staff off in a number of years so consequently they do have a lot of older workers. Many would have been through the series of layoff-s back in post 9/11 and even earlier so they would know their jobs are not always secure making the prospect of being paid to leave likely to be attractive.

 

Cheers

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/boeing-finds-new-software-flaws-on-max-stands-by-midyear-return?utm_source=facebook&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

 

Boeing Co. has identified two new software problems with the grounded 737 Max that must be fixed before the jetliner can carry passengers again.

 

The issues involve the flight-control computer and don’t affect the plane’s estimated return to service in mid-2020, Boeing said in an email Tuesday. The Max’s software has been undergoing a redesign after being linked to two fatal crashes that prompted a worldwide flying ban more than a year ago.

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Eh,

 

I have long referred to software as being nailing jelly to a tree, dig and you will always find flaws, even in Milspec systems. They will never get ALL the bugs out, nor should they be expected to.

 

Cheers

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Corona has taken another victim, this time the 737 MAX.

 

WSJ is reporting certification delays until around August at the moment suggesting late year return to service. I won't link it since it is behind a paywall.

 

TBH I doubt it matters, over 90% of the world's air fleets are grounded at the moment, the last thing needed is new aircraft. As troubled as Boeing is if they were able to deliver right now they would likely hit a slew of cancellations.

 

Boeing has been standing down workers in droves in Seattle, which being Washington State has been hit hard by corona, but even when they started putting workers back on, mainly to finish aircraft, especially 777s, the workers were wary and threatening to walk if there was a whiff of corona.

 

It really is a bit bizarre,  by putting a pause on deliveries and allowing worker lay-offs the pandemic is actually helping Boeing.

 

Somehow, despite it all, the military side is gamely pushing ahead, the latest iteration of the F-15 Eagle took its maiden flight this week.

 

Leave aside that at nearing 50 years of age that programme began in McDonnell, became McD and is now Boeing, it remains an unreal aircraft.

 

I can't imagine security is as tight on Eagle production as it is on F-35, who have coincidentally suggested delivery delays, but nonetheless guarded entry to facilities where you could just add a temp. check probably has allowed them to keep things more or less normal.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

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What's going on with the F-15?  Stealth version?  Qatar version?

Not a lot of info around.  As good as further dev sounds, $100M unit cost for a stealth version doesn't sound real good.

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No real information to date yet Ry.

 

"Silent Eagle" is basically still a paper airplane. I don't really think you can take the Eagle basic planform and make it stealth, not without aggressive active stealth which for all its promise still pushes the cost of  a plane out of reach for all but additive rather than fundamental.

 

Read an interesting article on jamming yesterday that made the point that the smaller the initial RCS the easier it is to add jam.

 

However I'd still maintain that stealth remains so defeatable that it is barely worth the effort whilst it is very much "flavor of the month."

 

When China and Russia are making frankly ridiculous stealth claims for their latest fighters and more and more  images appear of the -35 in "Beast Mode" you get the idea that the time of passive stealth is passing.

 

Israel does make good use of it with their -35s but that is in a mostly degraded threat environment and they were very quick to knock out new lower frequency radar antennas in Syria.

 

QED.

 

 

Cheers

 

 

 

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@chrisg i was just reading that Singapore airlines is using Alice Springs to store a couple of dozen jumbos

How hard is it to hotwire a plane?

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🙂

 

Yeah, the dry desert is a good place to store aircraft.

 

Hate to disappoint you but very difficult indeed, especially from that facility.

 

Essentially they cocoon  the aircraft, fully de-fueled, sealed up and purged with inert gas, that' s  before you figure out the start sequence 🙂

 

That's a newish facility for aircraft storage with no provision as yet for cannibalising the aircraft or eventually destroying them - in the end most if not all should eventually fly back into service.

 

At the best known such facility, "Might Masdic" or Davis Monthan Airbase in Arizona it is a different story.

 

Whilst some aircraft there return to, or in some cases enter initial service a lot do get used for parts and eventually broken up.

 

It's rather sad but serious collectors have been managing to save and restore some of the rarer examples.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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With everything else I had overlooked that Virgin going into administration presumably means their orders for MAX are off the table.

 

I wonder how many other airlines going to the wall also have orders that are now in doubt ?

 

That massive back-order book for the MAX now looks to be in serious trouble.

 

Cheers

 

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Boeing now say they will resume MAX production this month with deliveries due to resume in August.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-737-max-return-covid-19-airline-demand-travel-calhoun-recovery-51589213836

 

Seems a little premature being FAA have not signed off yet but they probably have good confidence.

 

What is at odds is an admission they probably over-produced , that jars with turning out more. However subject to certification SouthWest, who are an exclusive 737 operator, have inked a lease-back deal with Boeing so that should allow some aircraft to be flown away.

 

What is far less certain is how soon air travel will recover from Covid. The U.S. is still the biggest market although Asia is fast catching up, if America opens up too soon, and it seems they will, that could hamper any airline recovery.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hey Chrisg,

 

Hadn't been here since my last post in this thread but have been stood down from Qantas month on month off, catching up on life between home schooling 5 kids & managing the physical & emotion damage wrought by a challenging ASD demon-angel, and had a moment of inner peace & contemplation so dropped by The Green Room to read the words of the wise in these strange times... & discover the news of the atomicmpc closure. Glad I didn't leave it another month.

Anyway, before the opportunity is lost I just wanted to say that I've loved your stories, posts & insights, particularly the aviation related stuff. Your posts are well considered & rational, full of knowledge & understanding, respectful, & delivered with a kind of cool diplomacy. You are truly the Superhero this forum suggests.

 

Cheers

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Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 4:11 PM, chrisg said:

🙂

 

Yeah, the dry desert is a good place to store aircraft.

 

Hate to disappoint you but very difficult indeed, especially from that facility.

 

Essentially they cocoon  the aircraft, fully de-fueled, sealed up and purged with inert gas, that' s  before you figure out the start sequence 🙂

 

That's a newish facility for aircraft storage with no provision as yet for cannibalising the aircraft or eventually destroying them - in the end most if not all should eventually fly back into service.

 

At the best known such facility, "Might Masdic" or Davis Monthan Airbase in Arizona it is a different story.

 

Whilst some aircraft there return to, or in some cases enter initial service a lot do get used for parts and eventually broken up.

 

It's rather sad but serious collectors have been managing to save and restore some of the rarer examples.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those aircraft are definitely in deep storage. Unless Singapore Air have decided to move an entire maintenance facility out there.

 

It would have been a logistic challenge just to get everything and everyone there to deep store the planes.

 

Keeping the pilots maintained is another story. A friend flies the 74s but he has heard zero about sims. He did mention a colleague in QLD was flying A330s in a cargo-only role, and rotating the pilots through.

 

Sadly, the 747, which was due to be retired, may never fly again. Although there is still one route that they have to use it for at the moment due to ETOPs requirements.

Edited by AVC

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2 hours ago, MEC said:

Hey Chrisg,

 

Hadn't been here since my last post in this thread but have been stood down from Qantas month on month off, catching up on life between home schooling 5 kids & managing the physical & emotion damage wrought by a challenging ASD demon-angel, and had a moment of inner peace & contemplation so dropped by The Green Room to read the words of the wise in these strange times... & discover the news of the atomicmpc closure. Glad I didn't leave it another month.

Anyway, before the opportunity is lost I just wanted to say that I've loved your stories, posts & insights, particularly the aviation related stuff. Your posts are well considered & rational, full of knowledge & understanding, respectful, & delivered with a kind of cool diplomacy. You are truly the Superhero this forum suggests.

 

Cheers

 

 

🙂

 

Not sure everyone would agree with you MEC, but thanks. Home schooling 5 kids does sound challenging. The closure of the forums is sad, but as others have mentioned we have been on borrowed time for a while really.

 

4 minutes ago, AVC said:

Those aircraft are definitely in deep storage. Unless Singapore Air have decided to move an entire maintenance facility out there.

 

It would have been a logistic challenge just to get everything and everyone there to deep store the planes.

 

Keeping the pilots maintained is another story. A friend flies the 74s but he has heard zero about sims. He did mention a colleague in QLD was flying A330s in a cargo-only role, and rotating the pilots through.

 

Sadly, the 747, which was due to be retired, may never fly again. Although there is still one route that they have to use it for at the moment due to ETOPs requirements.

 

SQ will most likely swing almost entirely to 777s for their long-haul when service starts getting back to normal I would think AVC and if memory serves they have an order in for Airbus 350s which may be the final straw for the 747s depending upon route capacity needs. The pilots are indeed a challenge, on the plus side the sudden grounding of near everything has take pressure off the pilot shortage for a time but not in exactly a pleasant manner. QF from what I hear have been doing ok on sims but they do have contracts to supply time to other airlines that is keeping them busy. I'm not sure if SQ are one of those airlines any more.

 

Which route are you thinking of that still needs 747s ?

 

To return to the thread title Boeing are being very brave in re-starting their MAX production but although not stated yet implies they have confidence that the FAA will sign off soon. Whether other authorities will as historically they have in a "rubber stamp" fashion remains to be seen. Then there will be the question of how readily airlines will take up orders when they have no services to operate them on. That really depends upon if America does open up as Trump wants it to and what financial sleight-of-hand Boeing can offer to facilitate the airlines. The United agreement may well become the new norm.

 

It is certainly for the foreseeable future going to be a very changed industry.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

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Oh yeah, should have mentioned the 74 pilot was QF.

 

I'm pretty sue the route was SYD - Santiago . maybe MLB.

At the end of the day it is really only a certification thing, not a capability thing.

 

Also to return to the thread title, I think Boeing were just trying to change the 73 too far. They obviously already did some sleight of hand to even  get it in the air. 

I'm old school, so I tend to favour the Boeing, but Airbus knows FBW. How on earth a system like that was allowed to only use 2 sensors is beyond me.

 

Airbus would have had 3 AoA sensors all being monitored, if one goes out of range it would ignore it and go to probably alternate law. 

 

But yes, the industry will take a long time to bounce back. But it will. It already did after 9-11.

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Hmm, not sure with Sydney/Santiago, it would depend upon the route but given the range one could be plotted I think that would meet ETOPS for a twin. It's also a bit of a skinny route so it might be simpler to just stick with a great circle on the 747 until the 777ER is in business.

 

(I'm a little concerned about that aircraft as well, those folding wings seem destined to give trouble one day.)

 

It's worse than that with the MAX, MCAS only relies on one sensor at a time as I understand it, which was what doomed LionAir, they replaced the sensor with something off the third level very used market from all accounts.

 

I agree Boeing went on trying to gild the lily with the 737 for far too long but they had Airbus breathing down their necks with the Neo and were being driven by a highly profit oriented at-all-cost board.

 

You are utterly right though, Airbus have been FBW since day one and have a decisive lead over Boeing in that regard. Even now Boeing are somewhat caught between analogue and FBW apart from the 787, which sort of puts them generations behind Airbus.

 

I'm very old school as well and have a very strong attachment to the 747 for all the multiple dozens of trips I've had on the Lady, no idea how many really. But time marches on, and the era of four engined aircraft is about done.  It bemuses me that there are STILL Jetstars in service, a biz jet with four engines 🙂

 

A 747 guy not getting sim time with QF ? I'm probably being snowed a bit in that case, my contacts such as they are with QF must be making like ducks 🙂

 

Oh, there is no doubt the industry will recover, we live in an interconnected world and no surge in video -conferencing etc will stop us from wanting to be in the same room with people for important decisions and tourism is a well and truly established "right."

 

It might take a while though, it is different to 9/11 where it was all about security, this time there is a need to know that where you are going to or coming from is safe in medical terms.

 

No one is going to accept going into quarantine for 14 days after a ten day holiday.

 

It's somewhat ironic but the covid crisis is probably helping Boeing to some degree, they can slow production , get the backlog moved around, no bank is going to wind them up or even think of it in the current environment and their Military and space arms are not much affected. A limited example is Boeing Australia starting to roll out "Loyal Wingman" for the RAAF.

 

A few months back it really did look bad for them in terms of actual survival and I still do think they would do better broken up but there is some light at the end of the fiscal tunnel.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

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Boeing is sending some rather confusing signals today.

 

Whilst announcing they are re-starting 737 MAX production they also announce they are retrenching or accepting voluntary retirements from 12,000 workers and expect to shed more.

 

The majority of the jobs being shed appear to be in Seattle which makes some sense and primarily on the commercial side of the business, military and space do not seem to be much if at all affected although the detail is scanty.

 

Partly the cause has to be covid-19 grounding 90% of the world's air fleets which has led to airlines deferring or cancelling orders but the MAX debacle is also a factor which makes it a little difficult to understand just why production is re-starting.

 

That certainly sends some very mixed messages to the market, it will be interesting to see how their stock fares.

 

Cheers

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While this whole situation was devastating for some I actually came out of it really well. My Airbus shares went through the roof and I sold them at top dollar, go Airbus! Also screw Boeing for cutting corners.

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🙂

 

Bet you are glad you moved on them, Airbus has been struggling a little in share price with covid.

 

Cheers

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17 hours ago, chrisg said:

🙂

 

Bet you are glad you moved on them, Airbus has been struggling a little in share price with covid.

 

Cheers

 

I used to work for Airbus and they gave us free shares in the company back when they were worth about $80 per share I held on to them for a rainy day and I'm glad I did. The value of the shares more than doubled and I came out quite happy!

It was even better since they were free!

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1 hour ago, Sturmgeist said:

 

I used to work for Airbus and they gave us free shares in the company back when they were worth about $80 per share I held on to them for a rainy day and I'm glad I did. The value of the shares more than doubled and I came out quite happy!

It was even better since they were free!

 

That nice, I was forced to "buy" company shares for an ex-company I worked for. These could not be traded on the markets.

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Yeah, lucky score. I've had a few of those share bundlings in various jobs, never amounted to much.

 

Boeing began hinting today of an August return to service for the MAX. No news on just what airlines will pick up on their orders though so even if they do get approval by then it may be more symbolic than realistic.

 

Cheers

 

 

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On 5/29/2020 at 10:07 AM, Jeruselem said:

 

That nice, I was forced to "buy" company shares for an ex-company I worked for. These could not be traded on the markets.

Sounds like something Boeing would do.

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