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chrisg

Could the Democrats please wake up ?

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12 minutes ago, Leonid said:

But yeah... sure.... it's all Trump's fault.

Right now , everything in the known universe is Trump's fault ... cos you know, orange man ... lol

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No.

 

He didn't create the situation, I utterly agree, a mix of factors did, mostly American greed, but he is antagonising it rather than fixing it.

 

You will not beat China at a game of patience, not ever...

 

Cheers

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1 hour ago, chrisg said:

but he is antagonising it rather than fixing it.

 

Chris if I punch you in the dick and then you punch me in the face, are you antagonising the situation?

 

i just wanna set a baseline...

  • Haha 2

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🙂

 

You are  not quick enough   🙂

 

Same applies here, Trump is a very slow learner....

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, chrisg said:

🙂

 

You are  not quick enough   🙂

 

Same applies here, Trump is a very slow learner....

 

Cheers

 

 

A centralised communist regime built with insane bureaucracy engineered to make sure that no one is responsible for anything (no-one wants to be gulaged) and an economy with zero nimbleness, vs a brain dead quadriplegic 3 mins away from death - and I’d still bet on the dying guy for speed.

 

There is precisely one person on this forum who was born in and has living relatives who spent a majority of their lives in communist regimes. That’s me.

 

Communist regimes are houses of cards. They’re feared because they control information flow about themselves. It’s why people reckon Russia poses a military challenge. Or China.

 

But their economies can’t sustain a shooting war or even a trade war against advanced open economies.

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Nice. Another button pushed.

 

“Trump Administration Approves F-16 Fighter Jet Sales to Taiwan.

 

The $8 billion arms package, the single largest from the United States to Taiwan in years, is certain to anger China and could complicate the trade war.”

 

- NYT

 

The last time there was such a significant sale was when China forced down a US spy plane in international air space and returned it in pieces. Would’ve been around 2000/2001 in the Bush years from memory.

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No argument from me about your understanding of Russia. Not in the same manner but to a similar degree I know the Russians as well -should do I was an analyst for years. I know they never have enough resources to do anything other than stagger from one state of bankruptcy to the next - the seeds of their own destruction are already present in Putin's ridiculous extravagance.

 

But I think I understand China somewhat better than you do - they do not have that budgetary problem, they have cash to burn and they are investing it at a startling rate into re-arming.

 

Contrary to many I do not think however that their  remaining communist ideals can survive that new wealth, it is democratising them - not the old guard but the next generation will not be communist - provided there is a next generation.

 

Also contrary to many I do no think they are particularly interested in any massive land grabs, it's a huge country, they are not really in need of more.

 

However the South China Sea, and Taiwan, yes they, or at least the old guard, do want those back.

 

For different reasons, the Sea they believe has always been China's I doubt they will enforce any trade embargoes but they simply want the world to know that it is their sea, play nice.

 

Taiwan though--- The Chinese have very long memories they have not forgotten the Long march or the defeat but not final capitulation of Chiang Kai-Shek, they want Taiwan back, have never accepted that they lost it.

 

Trump permitting that arms package will most certainly anger China and they are far more militarily capable now than they were when they forced down that P3.

 

However they are most unlikely to do anything about it.

 

Why?

 

The answer is in their emergent wealth, their new billionaires - they are becoming more and more like the Taiwanese themselves, another generation and they will assimilate each other. They already speak of "Greater China" which also includes South Korea.

 

That also means that in another generation the Hermit Kingdom is likely to be squeezed out of existence.

 

Kim is not so stupid as to not suspect that, he's developing nukes as much to resist China as he is America.

 

The only thing between now and assimilation is the old guard in China, but there are a lot of them.

 

It is going to be, as they put it "interesting times."

 

There could well be another Chinese revolution, probably a peaceful one in the main, the newly minted Chinese Billionaires will not allow the old communists to threaten their wealth, they will if they have to overthrow the communists.

 

Obviously they wont exactly lay down, there lies the danger for the next several years.

 

Cheers

 

 

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21 hours ago, chrisg said:

He didn't create the situation, I utterly agree, a mix of factors did, mostly American greed, but he is antagonising it rather than fixing it.

So how should they fix the problem?

21 hours ago, chrisg said:

You will not beat China at a game of patience, not ever...

 

9 hours ago, chrisg said:

Contrary to many I do not think however that their  remaining communist ideals can survive that new wealth, it is democratising them - not the old guard but the next generation will not be communist - provided there is a next generation.

Still trying to work out how to reconcile these two seemingly conflicting notions.

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2 hours ago, Nich... said:

Still trying to work out how to reconcile these two seemingly conflicting notions.

China does not equal communism. Even if China became fully Democratic in the Western sense (I would put this about as likely as our sun going nova next week)  I am sure it's leaders and bureaucracy would be still quite capable of playing the long game.

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Not quite, aliali:

 

If we can't beat China at a game of patience, why are we meant to be patient and wait for them to just stop being an authoritarian regime as old people die off?

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Posted (edited)

@chrisg,

 

Maybe there’s an analogy you’ll understand better.

 

Democratic open economies are like the Internet - in a state of organised mess. But they are very hard to bring down because they “route around” bad nodes.

 

Centrally planned economies - like China - are built like serially-connected hubs (not switches) so no spanning tree protection and no resiliency and the design is based on authoritarianism, ie all the little logic is concentrated up too.

 

We don’t have to out-patience China. All we need to do is fuck up their topology - they can’t adjust as their ideology is not reflexive or capable of decision making by individuals accepting responsibility.

 

The iron law of authoritarianism and closed economies is that the authorities ride tigers they dare not dismount.

Edited by Leonid

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As I said, you really do not understand China Leo.

 

In the end the leaders are more afraid of the people than they are of any external powers, and with good reason.

 

China is mostly communistic by convenience, or perhaps by necessity, but it only took them so far.

 

Chinese communism is not like Russian communism , not at all - which might well explain why a great deal of tension persists between them.

 

When China, basically of necessity, adopted "the iron rice bowl" opened themselves up to capitalism, they set themselves on a course of inevitable change, away from communism.

 

We do have to out-patience them, probably for all time, they are a very, very patient people, always there is a 100 year plan - the west lurches mostly from one four year plan to the next.

 

I suspect a revolution s coming in China, hopefully mostly peaceful, Hong Kong may be the fuse, or it may take another revolt, but it is coming, and it is not just Hong Kong, or Macau Chinese, it is youth clear across the country who will be demanding change.

 

The old guard will resist, but in the end they will have to give it to them.

 

They cannot indoctrinate everyone and who do you think are the soldiers, pilots and sailors ?

 

The youth of the country, that's who.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

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I understand Communists Chris. Their skin colour or ethnicity does not matter. Ideology subsumes everything at the radical fringe.

 

The third Democratic debate was a hoot. Julian Castro basically made damned sure he ain’t gonna make it by all but calling Biden senile. Harris is done, I won’t say I told you so - but you’ve poor political instincts. Yang was the most sensible on that stage until he probably broke campaigning laws. Sanders and Warren still don’t understand how money works and how you have to pay for shit - I would’ve thought that since Bernie is now a multi-millionaire he’d have some inkling... but no... socialism clearly corrodes brains.

 

I’m not an American but watching 10mins of that debate had me worried my taxes were up 25%, pretty sure my IQ dropped 70% and that Sanders stole my wallet.

 

If this is the best the Democrats have, don’t even bother with an election. Giant waste of time and money.

Edited by Leonid

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🙂

 

You may well understand communists but you do not apparently understand the Chinese  -- communism was a means to an end for them, not the destination - just took them quite a while to realise that, and some still have not.

 

Regarding Harris - need I repeat ? A week is a long time in politics, five months is eternity.

 

She may pull the plug herself, or she may identify the debates for what they are, an elimination contest and keep her powder dry for the end run.

 

Only time will tell but nothing is pre-destined.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

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No Leo, you really do not get it.

 

The overwhelming majority of Chinese are an incredibly patient people but by the same token an overwhelming majority of them do not really understand Communism, or care much about it.

 

They care about survival. Ir is that simple,  but they are not above getting organised and overthrowing their supposed leaders if necessary.

 

Mao survived to die of old age by artifices such as the Cultural Revolution, Great Leaps etc. It could be  said he was the consummate con man, keeping the people endlessly distracted. That many of them also died did not seem to bother him much.

 

However since his death and with increased education in the country that teems with people it became necessary to no longer hold the people back but to encourage them to develop, in short to become more entrepreneurial. I don't think in reality the leaders since quite grasped for a long time how that would so radically change the country, but it has and there is no going back.

 

We are seeing the last of the old beliefs wither away before our eyes, what is replacing them is probably just as dangerous but it is not communism, far from it.

 

They have a very well known saying "to live in interesting times,:" meant as a curse.

 

We most certainly are but do not confuse knowing Russian Communism with understanding Chinese Communism, it hardly even exists any more and those who purport to still have communist beliefs are in fact one by one, letting the people go, because they have to or the people will take it anyway.

 

It is an incredibly delicate balance, it may even fall over but I think probably not, only time will tell.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yes yes. 400 word essay on how communism is never communism even if it’s communism. Also Chinese communism is patient because like all other communisms it’s not really communist because Chinese people, yo.

 

A++

 

Next.

 

 

Edited by Leonid
Communism

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🙂

 

Only history will tell , but if you thin k the boss of Huawei is a practicing communist you need help 🙂

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

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