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chrisg

One Hundred Seconds

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That's symbolically how close the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has placed the doomsday clock in it's annual meeting overnight.

 

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Newsletter01232020&utm_content=DoomsdayClock_2020Statement#

 

Some here don't treat the scientists very seriously it seems but personally I do and the collective of significant persons at the meeting seem to also.

 

The combination of a dismantling of nuclear agreements, heightened tensions in the Middle East and climate change have all combined in what could be seen as a perfect storm to convince the scientists to move the clock closer than ever to midnight.

 

There's a rather frightening common factor present in those concerns, Donald fucking Trump, he who has personally taken it upon himself to withdraw from key disarmament agreements, raise the tempo of tension with Iran, whilst completely bungling negotiations with North Korea and meanwhile roll back climate change initiatives in America.

 

Whilst I hold out little hope of his impeachment leading to his removal I'm really not certain that the planet can survive his blatant stupidities for another five years so I do sincerely hope that America shoves him out the door in November at the least.

 

That such a buffoon could be in charge of the U.S. simply beggars the imagination.

 

Cheers

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The nuclearisation of the planet precedes Donald Trump and shows quite clearly how useless disarmament or arms control agreements are when you have people signing agreements they have no intention of ever complying with. 

 

Case in point: India, Israel and Pakistan have never signed the NPT, all have nuclear weapons. Iran which has signed the NPT, proliferates - as do China and Pakistan.

 

It is also increasingly likely that the solution to climate change is climate change. The most affected will be the poor developing countries - the ones spitting out increasing amounts of CO2.

 

 

Edited by Leonid

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Hmm,

 

We have managed to survive for around 75 years without the deployment of nuclear arms and that has at least in part been because of treaties between the major players and an understanding that MAD is a reality. Walking away from treaties is madness, we are back to the bad old days of pre the fall of the Berlin war.

 

The major nations have signed the treaties over the years and have abided by them, by that I mean the US and Russia/SU, China has been a late arrival and in many ways playing "me-to."

 

India and Pakistan are indeed a major concern, if there is likely to be a nuclear flash-point then the Indian sub-continent has to be the most likely suspect but there are other concerns.

 

Perhaps the most significant, somewhat ironically, is that typical nuclear weapons now have much lower yields. That is however because weapons are much more accurate than they were which unfortunately makes it rather more likely that they might be used in a limited war than had previously been the case.

 

Obviously nuclear weapons precede Trump, but he is the first to blatantly walk away from existing treaties. They may not be perfect, probably never will be, but they demonstrate a willingness to cooperate that is otherwise absent.

 

You may have a well-founded dislike of Iran but it is notable that even after Trump abandoned the nuclear agreement with them, and tried, thus far unsuccessfully, to get the European signatories to follow suit, Iran still follows established inspection guidelines and does not make it difficult for the investigators the way Iraq did.

 

The countries actually doing the most to stem CO2 output are the big, emergent if you like, nations, China and India. Both are working very hard at developing Thorium as a safer nuclear energy source and despite your wanting to belittle the effort they are both involved in massive tree-planting initiatives. Their problem is that they cannot just halt energy production or they will have internal revolution on their hands.

 

There is no reason why America should be  increasing coal consumption apart from short-sighted greed, led by a climate-change denying idiot of a President.

 

The world is in serious trouble, making light of it or denying it is not going to make it go away.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, chrisg said:

Walking away from treaties is madness

 

MAD remains a reality treaty or not. Proliferation remains a reality treaty or not. Climate change remains a reality, treaty or not.

 

Paper is worthless.

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I'd disagree, paper shows intent, it may not be honored in the breech but people have met and discussed in order to arrive at an agreement. That humanises the relationship otherwise there is a tendency to become very dehumanised which makes taking hostile action easier.

 

One of the most iconic photographs I think I have ever seen was taken during the end of hostilities between Israel and Egypt. It was of an Israeli soldier with a big smile on his face extending a handshake to an Egyptian soldier somewhere in Sinai. You are very much less likely to shoot someone once you have shaken their hand in friendship.

 

One of the problems the world now faces, as I mentioned, is that MAD is no longer necessarily the case, low yield nukes delivered with high accuracy are a very real and frightening possibility.

 

Proliferation is ridiculous really but humans can be very ridiculous. what is the point to having a weapon that you would never dare to use ? Yet nation after nation has spent billions on doing just that. The world is just too small and too crowded for that stupidity to endure but I've no idea how to stop it.

 

I do find it amusing that Israel has never admitted to owning nukes but everyone believes they do. That could be the most spectacular example ever of the shell game but no one is ever likely to put it to the test  🙂

 

Climate change is indeed a reality and carbon offsets are a joke, real action is needed, not encouraging more coal consumption which both the President and our idiot PM are hell-bent on doing.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

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I wonder if more species and ecosystems would survive if WWIII happened, or not. 

 

Pretty fucken grim either way

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I think that has become the real concern Kimmo, that we could have a WWIII and not extinguish all life on the planet.

 

It used to be said that WWIV would be fought with sticks and stones but now the ghouls who produce the weapons have made it entirely possible to fight a war using weapons of mass destruction and still preserve enough of an aggressor nation's military capability to take ownership of a defeated rival.

 

Or at least that is the latest frightening set of suggestions.

 

Cheers

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32 minutes ago, chrisg said:

I'd disagree, paper shows intent, it may not be honored in the breech but people have met and discussed in order to arrive at an agreement. That humanises the relationship otherwise there is a tendency to become very dehumanised which makes taking hostile action easier.

 

One of the most iconic photographs I think I have ever seen was taken during the end of hostilities between Israel and Egypt. It was of an Israeli soldier with a big smile on his face extending a handshake to an Egyptian soldier somewhere in Sinai. You are very much less likely to shoot someone once you have shaken their hand in friendship.

 

I agree, but that only works if you re-negotiate and maintain ties every time a leader or military leadership changes.

 

33 minutes ago, chrisg said:

I do find it amusing that Israel has never admitted to owning nukes but everyone believes they do

 

Oh it's not a case of "believes".

It's an open secret. Israel do have nukes.

 

 

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Yes,

 

 That is indeed the rub with treaties, depends who signs them.

 

I know it is an "open secret" but wouldn't it be amusing if actually it was all a con ?

 

(Given the security at Dimona and around the Jerichos I'd say they are indeed real. )

 

Cheers

 

 

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6 minutes ago, chrisg said:

That is indeed the rub with treaties, depends who signs them.


And the times in which they were signed.

 

Back when most of the MAD treaties were signed world leaders couldn’t talk to each other except for during pre-planned times.

 

Now they all have each others’ mobile numbers. I assure you that if Putin wants to talk a mano a mano to Trump, it’s a 10s dial.

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🙂

 

Nah, Trump's mobile is perpetually tied up on Twitter   🙂

 

Cheers

 

 

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I seem to recall you making some comment about me being a one to have nothing positive to say about any one .

 

And here you are waffling on about doomsday and who's fault it is ... ffs, pass around the valium or prozac or joint, or whatever takes the edge off

 

 

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😉

 

This is the real world, dealing with it does not involve medication, it involves concern.

 

I'm simply reporting what the informed and intelligent group of scientists and others decided to telegraph to the world, if it bothers to listen,  there are serious threats lose in the world and significant people are not making them go away, in fact they are making the either more likely or worse.

 

Ignorance such as yours hardly improves the situation.

 

Cheers

 

 

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These days it seems, you can't be a 'scientist' without an agenda.

 

In the olden days.............they were just 'mad scientists'.

 

Money will make people say, do and believe all sorts of things.

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7 minutes ago, LogicprObe said:

 

These days it seems, you can't be a 'scientist' without an agenda.

 

In the olden days.............they were just 'mad scientists'.

 

Money will make people say, do and believe all sorts of things.

 

 

🙂

 

Those guys don't do it for money   🙂

 

Cheers

 

 

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21 minutes ago, chrisg said:

 

 

🙂

 

Those guys don't do it for money   🙂

 

Cheers

 

 

 

Publicity then.............everyone likes smoke blown up their arse............or so I've heard!

(cough...............fart!)

  • Haha 1

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Maybe, but really I don't think so, the scientists seem just to be genuinely concerned - as they have every right to be.

 

Cheers

 

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2 hours ago, LogicprObe said:

 

Publicity then.............everyone likes smoke blown up their arse............or so I've heard!

(cough...............fart!)

you know that might be the cause of chrisg's lingering pneumonia ... although wasn't it that Kellogs guy who was into putting things up peoples' arses as a cure-all ?

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Iran does keep upping the ante - now they are saying they can refine to whatever purity they want whilst they still are agreeing to comply with the AEC and are still saying they have no interest in developing nukes.

 

Somehow that last doesn't gel too well with the frequent moth frothing that includes threats of nuclear eradication against Israel.

 

Realistically they know they would be signing their own death warrants but it's a necessary bit of theatre to keep their followers focused. The chances are even getting rather high that any missile attack on Israel would fail anyway, THAAD has been deployed there for quite a while and it does keep getting better.

 

So at the moment it's all a game of bluff, not one that can go on for too long though, there's a distinct feeling that the Mullahs are losing whatever grip they had.

 

Same old Chinese curse...

 

Cheers

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Iran will never comply.............their mission is to destroy Israel.

Nuke the cunts now...............plus whack a couple into Iraq and Syria just to be sure.

 

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Israel’s just a stalking horse for the Iranian Occupation Regime in the absence of any other viable plan.

 

IE - yeah they want to destroy Israel and will crater Iran to do so at the expense of its people - many of whom are not even close to as radical as the goat-fucker pederasts in charge.

 

This is the greatest sadness of this whole thing - that an elite of wealthy powerful religious millenarian morons, lead an army that is a money-making business rather than a defense force, into a war the civilians don’t particularly see any requirement for (why would Persians lay down their lives for some Arab hicks?) to establish another Saudi-aligned Sunni state of religious ISIS-types?

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Indeed.

 

It is distressingly obvious to anyone outside the country that the tail is definitely wagging the dog but the citizens of Iran, as disillusioned as they are seem not willing to overthrow the Mullahs. I guess the creation of the nut-job guards has a lot to do with that.

 

It is hardly a popular-led theocracy that needs a bunch of off-the-leash sadists to protect it.

 

Cheers

 

 

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1 hour ago, Leonid said:

Israel’s just a stalking horse for the Iranian Occupation Regime in the absence of any other viable plan.

Israel ( Jews ) always seem to be in the wrong place don't they ?

 

1 hour ago, Leonid said:

 

IE - yeah they want to destroy Israel and will crater Iran to do so at the expense of its people - many of whom are not even close to as radical as the goat-fucker pederasts in charge.

Sounds historically familiar ... looking at Germany here, I am. Not sure about the goat fucking per say, rest of it though is a good fit

 

1 hour ago, Leonid said:

 

This is the greatest sadness of this whole thing - that an elite of wealthy powerful religious millenarian morons, lead an army ...

Different religion same goal .

 

And given history, trying to play reasonable via politics proved the worst of the worst.

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35 minutes ago, eveln said:

And given history, trying to play reasonable via politics proved the worst of the worst.


World War 2 and the Holocaust happened because reasonable people wanted peace and delivered “Peace for our Time.”

 

Thereby making the war so much worse.

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In fact, pretty much the entire history of the world since 1945 has been about obtaining peace at any cost or “managing” conflicts.

 

But the arc of human history doesn’t bend towards justice. It bends towards the reign of the powerful. And the rest of us plebs hope to hell the powerful are decent.

 

What we’ve done since the end of the war is neutered the powerful and allowed the tyrants an equal voice. We let them into our living rooms (Pravda, PressTV, CCTV), we allow them to make the case for their orwellinisn in our media. And then we make excuses for their excesses because our great-great-grandfathers didn’t like brown people.

 

5 years or so ago, a backwater shithole like Sri Lanka decided enough was enough and decimated a terrorist cell by taking no prisoners and fighting a war like they used to be fought, using the same calculation used by the Americans when they dropped atom bombs on Japan - that being that continuing to “manage” the conflict would lead to more lives lost, more disintegration of political and social cohesion.

 

In the next few days Trump will be releasing the Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. It is not so much a peace plan as it is a final confirmation of the Arabs’ utter and complete loss in 1967, removing any hope of their getting back of that which they bet the house on to finish their mentor’s (Hitler) dream.

 

The world is in this shit state because we tolerate the intolerable, don’t fight wars that need to be fought and pretend that universal human rights are something that will sprout into being if we just act nice.
 

We’ve lost the ability to take our own side.

 

I believe that’s why one of the most left wing Labor politicians in this country is calling for a pledge of allegiance. Gender, nationality, pluralism has been utterly decimated by globalist forces. “Family” lacks defined meaning.

 

Used to be the case that people who were on opposite sides politically would still meet at church and chat and talk about family. Now they don’t. Now they’re on social media, subject to algorithms to optimise polarisation.

 

I utterly agree about the 100s change. The world’s going to hell in a hand basket because there’s a bunch of fucken weirdos utterly brainwashed into believing that men can have periods nd that there’s a need to close the gender pregnancy gap - and anyone who disagrees with this is a bigoted cis-gendered scumbag.

 

That’s the level we’ve brought our civilization to.

Edited by Leonid
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