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chrisg

The coronavirus conspiracy

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my guesstimate based on seasonal flu vaccines is 40% effective at best

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That does not sound very promising scruffy.

 

They do now certainly seem to be taking it seriously in Italy:

 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-outbreak-in-italy-plunges-europe-into-lockdown/news-story/6d2a1d9e27005da95135f0b9544a9045

 

My sister and her husband were planning a trip there in a few weeks, may have to re-think.

 

Cheers

 

 

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If I learnt  anything from the show last night, it was that perhaps not getting on planes trains and cruise ships for extended trips would be the go . At the least, recycled air should be banned .

 

Mind you, the soldering up of entrances to people's homes was more than a bit ruthless. How the devil do those sealed up get supplies ??

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Hmm,

 

Just had lunch with my sister. At the moment they are keeping an eye on it but if Australia starts banning incoming flights from Italy, which they may, they will probably delay their trip. It's not a fixed type of trip they tend to just get to Europe and wander around by train booking as they go.

 

Recycled air in aircraft is a bit of a myth, what actually happens is the air bleeds out of the aircraft under continual pressure from the pressurisation system but that can be just as bad in terms of bugs. Essentially the air travels the length of the aircraft, under pressure, not that you would notice a draft or anything but bugs certainly get around inside.

 

Cruise ships and I'd guess trains as well with people in close proximity definitely not a good idea.

 

The problem really is that the authorities do not know enough about the virus in general as yet or if they do they are not telling plus the stats are very confusing.

 

As an example the stats show Australia having 22 cases, including 7 from the Diamond Princess but that ignores that 3 have fully recovered and most are not showing any symptoms.

 

That seems to be a part of the problem, a lot of infected people never show symptoms but are carriers making it very difficult to track.

 

Cheers

 

 

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we'll all be rooned said hanrahan, before the year is out...

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🙂

 

 Very literary scruffy  🙂

 

I'm not 100% sure if the WHO has declared a pandemic as yet but it must be getting awfully close.

 

Cheers

 

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They're being very tardy about it..............like the name..........they said they had to make sure they came up with a name that didn't mention China.

After a few more cark it over in Europe and it gets a good foothold in the Americas, they'll declare it.

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Could be, I'd say the level of international reaction terms it as a pandemic already.

 

The problem is that I really can't get more than fatalistic about it - if I get it I get it and I'll see if my immune system can deal with it. Probably it can but my recovering respiratory system does give me pause.

 

Not that I'm going to go out looking for it but not modifying my agenda either.

 

Cheers

 

 

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...and this is what happens when a person doesn't adjust their agenda to suit the current situation ...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/canary-islands-hotel-on-lockdown-after-coronavirus-case/12000648

 

" The Italian doctor who tested positive for COVID-19 has been quarantined in a local clinic while samples are analysed in a hospital near Madrid to confirm the initial diagnosis, the archipelago's President, Ángel Víctor Torres, announced late on Monday

(local time) in a series of tweets.

Spanish health authorities said they would test tourists and staff in the hotel.

The visiting tourist had arrived from one of the areas in northern Italy where a cluster of the coronavirus has infected hundreds, reported Spanish private news agency Europa Press, citing the regional government's health department. "

 

Granted he may not have thought he was sick or even carrying, but the man's a doctor, ffs. Someone I generally associate with having a clue or two And now the hotel is in Lockdown. That's lot's of random jobs up the crapper right there

Edited by eveln

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15 minutes ago, eveln said:

Granted he may not have thought he was sick or even carrying, but the man's a doctor, ffs.

 

ffs?

 

we now have credible theories of an incubation period as long as 24 days or more, as well as growing reports of asymptomatic transfer. 

 

knowing that the sudden spike in cases in northern italy only became apparent as recently as Feb 21, and without knowing when the man left Italy — i wouldnt automatically assume he had any basis to think of himself as enough of a potential carrier to rethink his travel plans.

 

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5 hours ago, @~thehung said:

 

ffs?

 

we now have credible theories of an incubation period as long as 24 days or more, as well as growing reports of asymptomatic transfer. 

 

knowing that the sudden spike in cases in northern italy only became apparent as recently as Feb 21, and without knowing when the man left Italy — i wouldnt automatically assume he had any basis to think of himself as enough of a potential carrier to rethink his travel plans.

 

 

Anyone could be a Typhoid Mary!

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon

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7 hours ago, @~thehung said:

 

ffs?

... — i wouldnt automatically assume he had any basis to think of himself as enough of a potential carrier to rethink his travel plans.

 

I wouldn't and didn't automatically assume anything. you did though ;)

 

He's a doctor. Which to my lay mind says he learnt stuff. He could be a doctor of anything, which could mean that he would not consider his traveling from an area with growing cases of the virus to a tourist hotel would be an issue.

I'm just assuming here the doctor reads the news or his on line choice of media and can see what's happening ... perhaps he hasn't watched the scary shit about it all

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like most people, he was determined to go on a holiday he had planned

 

and that's why the world is a sitter for pandemic spread these days

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Too little information on the case to even comment.

 

As noted there is no mention of when he left Italy which could well have been before the virus was identified in the country and the articles do not even mention if he is displaying symptoms.

 

That's the danger with this virus and it cuts two ways. You can be infected, or indeed have some completely unrelated ailment with similar symptoms or be asymptomatic but a carrier. On the other hand you can can become hypochondriac and lurk behind a mask in a darkened room.

 

However yet again the foolishness is repeating, now people are being quarantined in a hotel which is guaranteed to have air conditioning which very likely will spread the virus unnecessarily.

 

All very well but then the question becomes just how DO you deal with it when it is detected in a large close-contact area ?

 

Not easily it would seem as country after country is rapidly discovering.

 

Cheers

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It's Carnivale time over there .I'm guessing now, he's there for that.

 

1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

like most people, he was determined to go on a holiday he had planned

 

and that's why the world is a sitter for pandemic spread these days

Pretty much this ^^

Narrow focus "it's all about me" time !

Edited by eveln

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2 hours ago, eveln said:

I wouldn't and didn't automatically assume anything. you did though 😉

 

oh, i did?  i mentioned something that i wouldnt automatically assume.  the only assumption i made is that i can determine what i would and wouldnt automatically assume.  in case youre wondering, my assumption was 100% correct.

 

2 hours ago, eveln said:

He's a doctor. Which to my lay mind says he learnt stuff. He could be a doctor of anything, which could mean that he would not consider his traveling from an area with growing cases of the virus to a tourist hotel would be an issue.

I'm just assuming here the doctor reads the news or his on line choice of media and can see what's happening ... perhaps he hasn't watched the scary shit about it all

 

this rehash shows you glossed over or missed the main points of my post, which addressed all of this.

 

he's very probably a medical doctor, as it would not befit journalistic convention to refer to him simply as a doctor otherwise.  not that i think that's terribly relevant, nor for that matter his level of education...

 

...a far more pertinent conjecture would be to wonder when exactly he left, and whether or not the news in Italy at the time reflected the understanding we have now.  taking this information from wiki as verbatim, "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists were tested positive for the virus in Rome.  A cluster of COVID-19 cases was later detected starting with 16 confirmed cases in Lombardy on 21 February, an additional 60 cases on 22 February..." and allowing at least another 24 hours for the penny to fully drop in the media — its very possible that a well informed individual could have left the Lombardy area up until as late as less than a week ago without any compelling reason to believe it was a hotbed of disease.

 

another thing i am wondering about is an ancillary ethical question — hypothetically — if an individual with a suspicion that their area might soon become a hotbed of disease takes steps leave with the hope of avoiding infection, a) whether or not we should deem their decision sensible/reasonable, and b) whether or not a subsequent discovery that they were (unwittingly) infected at the time they made that decision should have any bearing on our assessment?

 

 

Edited by @~thehung

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LOL.

Like I just said up above you @thehung, it's Carnivals time

 

Edit: 

Also, given the current level of today's journalism, typing the word " doctor" is quicker than typing the word " professor ", and still being loosely correct. 

Edited by eveln

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Has anyone here any information about the running of the new hospital that was quickly built ?

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The members of Shincheonji Church of Jesus in South Korea have been happy infecting each other with this thing ... and yes they are one of doomsday cults

Edited by Jeruselem

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That hospital was primarily built for simple bed treatment of patients to take the load off the primary facilities of the main hospitals that are dealing with more severe cases.

 

That China could assemble a hospital so quickly was amazing in itself but it could not be expected to have all the capabilities of a mature hospital.

 

There's now the first suggestion that if the crisis does not peak and recede the Olympics could be cancelled.

 

https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/tokyo-olympics-could-be-cancelled-rather-than-postponed-because-of-coronavirus-crisis/news-story/191ef1cac5c2090444bfecfa02aa8feb

 

It would be unprecedented other than from WWII and the comments Pond is making are measured and appropriate to where things are at.

 

However if the virus is not in decided retreat by May they are going to have to treat it seriously, the Olympics pulls in literally people from all over the world, great way to guarantee a pandemic.

 

It would be a complex measurement, or it could be bluntly simple. If Japan is still fighting with the virus by then the decision would have to be cancel. If Japan is clear but other countries are still fighting with it then they could be banned from attending or even having visitors.

 

Those South Koreans really are nutters. I'm a bit concerned because my Nephew's wife's family is from Usan which is not far away and they are very elderly.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Seems the Italian doctor had been staying in the Canaries for a week, which puts his departure before the Italian viral bloom but nonetheless when he heard of it he reported himself to local medical officials and is now headed for Madrid for confirmation of if he is actually infected. Understandably the facilities on the island were not equipped to give a definite answer.

 

So, it may all be a false alarm but regardless I fail to see how the guy could have been any more responsible.

 

Cheers

 

 

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11 minutes ago, eveln said:

Whilst Bhudist monks near Cambodia say seven peppercorns on the tongue will keep you safe

 

Because you choke on the peppercorns and drop dead by accident?

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😉

 

 A lot of people are saying alcohol is the answer - I'll drink to that 🙂

 

Cheers

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3 minutes ago, chrisg said:

😉

 

 A lot of people are saying alcohol is the answer - I'll drink to that 🙂

 

Cheers

Corona beers are the answer 🙄

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