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chrisg

The coronavirus conspiracy

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58 minutes ago, TheManFromPOST said:
1 hour ago, Jeruselem said:

Corona beers are the answer 🙄

But Lyme disease could be a complication 

Those are soooooooooooooooo bad they're nearly good

;)

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I heard a nasty rumour about the new hospital ... but I'll leave it out of here for now

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5 minutes ago, eveln said:

I heard a nasty rumour about the new hospital ... but I'll leave it out of here for now

 

Organ harvesting!

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/coronavirus-covid-19-travelling-to-italy-with-small-children/12001516

" While I would never do anything to put my family at risk, I'm relatively at ease about taking my two young daughters to Italy for a holiday next month. ..."

 

That's the opening line, so obviously there's more in link

 

3 minutes ago, LogicprObe said:

 

Organ harvesting!

no, not heard that  ...bloody dodgey stuff that would be

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Organ harvesting from someone who's died from vicious virus, err ... yeah that's real good for the recipient.

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1 hour ago, Jeruselem said:

Organ harvesting from someone who's died from vicious virus, err ... yeah that's real good for the recipient.

It's not actually known to be a thing Jeruselem. It's a random conspiracy that Logicpr0be suggests is all

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6 hours ago, Jeruselem said:

Organ harvesting from someone who's died from vicious virus, err ... yeah that's real good for the recipient.

 

I've heard the Ebola ones are cheap!

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Not conspiracy related, but surely of interest to readers here:

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-the-mysterious-coronavirus-detected-in-china

 

(Article dated 25 February - on the other side of the date line.  This is yesterday's news, not two days ago.)

Quote

...

The 14 U.S. cases include 8 in California, 2 in Illinois, 1 in Massachusetts, 1 in Washington State, 1 in Arizona, and 1 in Wisconsin, according to CNN.

“This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don’t yet have a vaccine for this novel virus, nor do we have a medicine to treat it specifically,” Messonnier emphasized.

New clusters of the coronavirus have also popped up in Iran, Japan, and South Korea, making health officials nervous that the virus could become a global pandemic.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government continues to make headway against COVID-19.

On Feb. 23, China reported an additional 409 COVID-19 cases across the entire country and 150 additional deaths — a significant improvement compared with the 648 additional cases and 97 deaths reported on Feb. 22, according to Reuters.

The total number of cases across the globe now stands at more than 80,000, and total deaths is over 2,700.

...

“We detected the virus in oral swabs, anal swabs, and blood, thus infected patients can potentially shed this pathogen through respiratory, fecal-oral, or body fluid routes,” the study authors wrote.

Chinese researchers conducted the study in a Wuhan, China, hospital, and analyzed samples collected from about 180 patients.

Crucially, evidence of COVID-19 was found in anal swabs and blood — even when it wasn’t detected using oral swabs. According to the study, this was particularly true for those people receiving supportive care for several days.

Findings also suggest that timing is an important factor.

On day one of the illness, 80 percent of oral swabs were COVID-19-positive, but by day five, 75 percent of anal swabs were positive, while only half of the oral swabs showed infection, according to the study.

...

Although medical staff, people with illnesses, and older adults are most at risk, more than 80 percent of COVID-19 cases have been mild, according to a new report from the CCDC.

...

China state media reported that some of the people who fell ill between Dec. 12 and 29 are sellers from a local wholesale seafood market.

That market has since been shut down for cleaning and disinfection, according to the CDC.

“What’s happening over there is in a particular area of China at a seafood market, and… it [first] appears that transmission is from animal to human,” Nikhil Bhayani, an infectious disease physician with Texas Health Resources, told Healthline.

 

So, public bathrooms have just become a whole different kind of risky.

 

Meantime, best advice is:

  • Cover your mouth when coughing/sneezing.  A surgical mask will stop you aspirating someone else's sneeze droplets if it's properly fitted, but most aren't and will make them worthless.
  • Generally avoid close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands, if possible.
  • Wash your hands!  Before touching your nose or mouth - if you touched anything between tap/faucet and orifice, stop and wash 'em again.  Hand sanitiser is not going to cut it - this is a virus, not a bacterium.  Use soap, and water as hot as you can make it without pain.  Use a nailbrush if available.
  • If you are sick, stay home!  If you have been sick recently, stay home for a day or two after you feel 'fine' again.  Your immune system is compromised, and that makes you alpha target.  (Also, nobody else wants your bug either.)

Reminder: 2,700 deaths from 80,000 verified infections.  This is a serious disease, but it's not going to end civilisation - or probably even anyone you know.

 

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Here's hoping it's over before I do personally know of someone dead or just really ill from it 

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chances are if it really takes off big, then everyone will personally know someone who dies from it

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34 minutes ago, scruffy1 said:

chances are if it really takes off big, then everyone will personally know someone who dies from it

 

What I read about it suggests it's not quite as savage as SARS. Whilst that was terrible, I didn't know anyone with that.

 

Also heard (US CDC guy, and an Aus news article) various research groups think they're about a month oit from human trials of the first vaccine candidate. (Which means a year+ from releasing millions of doses, IF they get it right first time.)

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I know someone who if he gets a bog standard boring flu, he's 6 feet under. He won't be able fight off COVID-19.

 

So he went to clinic for people with breathing issues.

The doctor in attendance, came into work ... with a flu.

Wasn't impressed.

Edited by Jeruselem

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points to be made

 

sars and mers were relatively contained, with far less opportunity for spread

 

current knowledge :
mortality seems mainly in age >70 or in those with other morbidities initial numbers suggest  < 3%

SARS was a relatively rare disease; at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8422 cases with 774 deaths - a case-fatality rate of 11%

Of 1789 MERS cases , there were 558 deaths - the overall %CFR of the pandemics with MERSCoV was 31.1%


comparisons with seasonal flu in Australia :
2016 : 464 influenza deaths were recorded

2017 : 1,255 deaths due to influenza, recording a standardised death rate of 3.9 per 100,000 persons.

2018 : 58,847 confirmed influenza cases and 125 deaths in Australia

 

current known cases of covid19

Globally  79 331 confirmed (715 new)
 
China 77 262 confirmed (415 new)   2595 deaths (150 new)  
 
Outside of China 2069 confirmed (300 new)   29 countries (1 new)     23 deaths (6 new)  
 
WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
 
China Very High

Regional Level High

Global Level High

 

as for vaccination - yeah... flu vax is stated as ~ 40% effective, so spread is still a big risk  and would need a huge vaccination penetration in the population, and sooner than possible logistically with a brand new vaccine

 

 

extrapolating the infection rate from flu in 2018 (confirmed cases, not obviously all cases), the death toll in oz would be ~ 2000

 

 

Edited by scruffy1

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The impact on travel has been dramatic:

 

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/impact-of-coronavirus-revealed-by-stark-difference-in-flight-radar-from-last-year-to-now/news-story/127e1b51d5b5a0fc8414230122b60fa8

 

In one respect a good thing, curbing the 747 vector, but the industry has been running on very small margins for a very long time, it does have much room to move.

 

Cheers

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Indonesia has zero cases ... because it's no capability of knowing who's got it, so it's actually not zero.

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Yeah,

 

 I'd be very suspicious of Indonesia's reporting as well.

 

Even Bali, which I do know quite well, has lousy healthcare.

 

Cheers

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2 hours ago, chrisg said:

I'd be very suspicious of Indonesia's reporting as well. 

 

"mild flu-like symptoms" 80% of the time? I'm not confident that anyone is going to pick that up more than 'sometimes'.

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3 minutes ago, Cybes said:

 

"mild flu-like symptoms" 80% of the time? I'm not confident that anyone is going to pick that up more than 'sometimes'.

 

More the case that if they do have patients presenting with coronavirus they will likely be unable to confirm and in a form of face saving rather unique to Indonesia will sweep it under the carpet.

 

Not really derogatory to Indonesian healthcare but what I have seen of it has me determined to never get sick enough to need it. They have distinctly different attitudes to life, living and death for that matter.

 

In that respect far from unique to Indonesia, the same could be said of most of Africa.

 

Cheers

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13 hours ago, Cybes said:

Hand sanitiser is not going to cut it - this is a virus, not a bacterium. 

 

please explain.  i am not across why the distinction matters.

 

btw, i make my own sanitiser out of 70/30ish isopropyl alcohol/water that i refill a small spray bottle with.  i really hate the residue left by most gels or anything with a scent. 

 

 

i was reading something a while ago that claimed people touch their faces 20 times an hour.  seems like an exaggeration.

 

 this seems more plausible: "Alonso and colleagues randomly selected 249 people in public places, on the Washington, D.C. subway and in the Brazilian city of Florianopolis. The researchers observed them, noting how often they touched a common surface and then their mouth or nose. They found that people touched their faces an average of 3.6 times per hour, and common objects an average of 3.3 times per hour."

 

still, ive been monitoring myself since.  i hardly ever touch my face, even at home.  i can go for hours at a time.  and even at home, i will wipe the corner of my mouth with one of my knuckles or scratch with the back of my hand if i can help it — unless ive just washed my hands.  its not something i am really conscious of, but something i guess i internalised from growing up with pets and having it drummed into me to wash my hands after touching them.  of course i would happily play with the dog and continue watching TV or whatever, but i would never forget the pending handwash job, and until such time my hands were dead to me.

 

ive noticed it a lot on public transport.  i am no Howard Hughes, but if i can avoid touching a handrail or whatever i will.  and if i do, my hands are dead to me (even though they probably were already by virtue of getting around the city).  but ive seen people (maybe even a majority) again and again grab hold of those communal greasy fingerprint riddled poles and then start picking at their teeth and preening themselves with the same hand a moment later.  ugh. 

 

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11 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

but ive seen people (maybe even a majority) again and again grab hold of those communal greasy fingerprint riddled poles and then start picking at their teeth and preening themselves with the same hand a moment later.  ugh. 

It's the same with the handles of shopping trolleys. Woolies up here spasmodically supplies wet wipes at the inner entrance door. Lots don't bother to use the wipes 😞

When the Japanese tourism market was going great guns here, it was a very common sight to see a lot of the women wearing gloves. On the odd occasion they were the kind that went up to the elbow, was both sun protection as well as germ protection.

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2 minutes ago, eveln said:

It's the same with the handles of shopping trolleys. Woolies up here spasmodically supplies wet wipes at the inner entrance door. Lots don't bother to use the wipes 😞

 

well, for me personally, thats crossing the Howard Hughes line.  i wouldnt use those wipes.  but then i won't be walking around absent-mindedly fondling any of my orifices either, because my hands are now an assumed biohazard :)

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31 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

 please explain.  i am not across why the distinction matters.

 

Viruses aren't alive and don't get killed by antimicrobial stuff like this. They do get washed off with soap and water though. Although that is less convenient to carry with you... 

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36 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

i wouldnt use those wipes. 

I reckon the wet wipes can be a huge improvement on the yukky stuff that's spread across the handle bar ... seriously got to wonder what some of it is

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