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chrisg

The coronavirus conspiracy

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anyway whilst i still have a job, I'm out for the night.

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you're of course correct that you can have an opinion

 

what i am repeatedly saying is that the exponential phase of a contagious disease  is something i DO know about, and the figures i have quoted are a certainty, the only margin for uncertainty is how many months it takes to hit that penetration, at which point herd immunity will diminish risk due to inadequate hosts still to infect to maintain the first wave

 

whether exposure and recovery means you are immune ?  i have no idea

 

but the second round if it happens we had better be hoping for a quick and effective vaccine, or we're doubly fucked *

 

* that's a medical term

 

 

as they say, opinions are like arseholes - everyone has them

 

but projected scenarios for viral spread aren't opinions, they are maths; so like having an opinion as to what 2+2 equals is... redundant

 

(spoiler : it's going to be 4 regardless of what you think about that)

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I've not looked at the site that has the graphical representation of the world for a while but India seems to be either handling it really well or just plain underreporting.

 

Locally I've noticed the beggar population at a few of the local shopping centres has jumped.

Though for a while here we've had the problem of professional beggars - sit there all day panhandling then jump into their $15,000 car (and confirmed by a local shop's FB page).

I find it hard to find pity for most of them.  How can you be poor yet sit there smoking all day?

Part of the reason I gave it up... it was costing almost as much as the rent!

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Posted (edited)

Being a (Food) Truck Driver we are exempt but our depots have shut the canteens and Driver Reception areas.

(if I remember I will take the footage off my truck dashcam)

 

I arrived at our Dover depot last night to be greeted with the entrance coned off and "double manned"

I  stopped (obviously) and they radioed in "Peterboroughs here" and was told to go on bay 26 and put paperwork in the back of the trailer - My trailer change is bay 16, paperwork in the back.

 

This was actually quicker than parking up and waiting in the Drivers Recep for instructions.

After doing this I then have to park up for 45 mins for legal break before return.

And that's when I saw the Portaloo they've hired.

Needing a leak I walked up to it and tried to open the door. It was held shut by a fucking strong magnet (The portaloo is basically a (pro) converted 20 foot container which is mounted about a metre off the ground with steps up to the door). Damned near took all my strenght to open the bloody door.

 

So I went for a wee and went to wash my hands. HOT water plumbed in (bugger me sideways !!) So I washed my hands with the sanitiser etc and went to leave. Not wanting to touch the door handle I tried to push open the door with my arm only that strong magnet is bloody strong.

SO I put more weight behind it than I should and damned near went arse over shit down the steps  when momentum carried me out !

 

It'd been a bummer to survive Covid-19 only to break my fekkin neck exiting the fekkin Dunnies !

 

Oh.. Just got an email from KFC. They've followed McDonalds and shut all outlets. Looks like I'll be making us Chicken Nooooo York this saturday night.

(Chicken breast with bacon wrapped around it and covered in melted cheese)

 

I think we need to re-install 2020. It's got a virus !

Edited by Outcast_Aussie
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5 hours ago, scruffy1 said:

you're of course correct that you can have an opinion

 

what i am repeatedly saying is that the exponential phase of a contagious disease  is something i DO know about, and the figures i have quoted are a certainty, the only margin for uncertainty is how many months it takes to hit that penetration, at which point herd immunity will diminish risk due to inadequate hosts still to infect to maintain the first wave

 

whether exposure and recovery means you are immune ?  i have no idea

 

but the second round if it happens we had better be hoping for a quick and effective vaccine, or we're doubly fucked *

 

* that's a medical term

 

 

as they say, opinions are like arseholes - everyone has them

 

but projected scenarios for viral spread aren't opinions, they are maths; so like having an opinion as to what 2+2 equals is... redundant

 

(spoiler : it's going to be 4 regardless of what you think about that)

 

This one seems very contagious and the curve is probably steeper than exponential.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, scruffy1 said:

and without thinking doctors are superior, they do have a much better grasp of what's actually happening right here, right now

 

So you know my normal lifestyle is in a manner self isloalting. And when I had the audacity as a layperson, to make a fuss about Dr Higgins coming back from his O/S holiday,  self diagnosing , and going straight back to work possibly infecting 70 patients, and two nursing homes, and any other randoms he met for four days before putting his hand up for a test. A test he PROVED POSITIVE FOR after his own self diagnosing. I was very loudly, by the mob here , vilified for thinking and printing such things . So excuse me, but really it's some of you lot that really need to reset the way you fucking live and think.

 

7 hours ago, scruffy1 said:

but the second round if it happens we had better be hoping for a quick and effective vaccine, or we're doubly fucked *

 

* that's a medical term

really dude. excuse me if I have to go look it up will ya 

Edited by eveln
because I annoyed

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sorry, when i said doctors had a grasp, i meant as  a pirate guideline, not as a pirate rule - remembering that after all, they are humans too, with all the variation and imperfection of the whole population, and that happened some weeks ago before the ugly picture became more clear

 

and as i noted, denial is the first response to death, hence dr higgins not believing he could be that guy

 

stay well, eveln

 

it's all that most of us can do, and some have more opportunity than others to do that

 

please realise i get passionate about it because i'm far more likely a corpse due to this than most people here

 

 

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On 3/23/2020 at 11:20 PM, @~thehung said:

lets check the leaderboard:

 

China     81,454

Italy       59,138

USA       35,224

the question is, how many days will it take until the USA overtakes them both?

 

 

so... since monday night above

 

81,591 China = 1% increase
69,176 Italy = 17% increase
52,145 US = 48% increase

 

 

 

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hmm...i wish i had originally included Spain from the same time and source (Johns Hopkins)

 

On 3/24/2020 at 8:03 AM, @~thehung said:

81,496 China
63,927 Italy
41,708 US
33,089 Spain

 

so then, in the last 24 hours:

 

81,591 China = +1%
69,176 Italy = +8%
52,145 US = +25%
39,676 Spain = +20%

 

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3 hours ago, LogicprObe said:

This one seems very contagious and the curve is probably steeper than exponential.

 

um...derp? 

 

steeper than exponential would be linear growth faster than the fastest exponential growth.   that would be akin to an infinite increase at an infinite rate.  it would be like one guy in a wet market in Wuhan getting it, and then the rest of us getting it instantly, by FTL telepathy or something.

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1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

sorry, when i said doctors had a grasp, i meant as  a pirate guideline, not as a pirate rule - remembering that after all, they are humans too, with all the variation and imperfection of the whole population

Which is exactly why I asked @~thehung to not expect you to speak for Dr Higgins absurd behaviour

 

1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

 

, and that happened some weeks ago before the ugly picture became more clear

The picture was abundantly clear in China and Italy. And simple lay people knew he was being bloody ignorant

 

1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

 

and as i noted, denial is the first response to death, hence dr higgins not believing he could be that guy

Being a Dr. he doesn't automatically get to play that card IMO 

 

1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

 

stay well, eveln

You too 

 

1 hour ago, scruffy1 said:

 

please realise i get passionate about it because i'm far more likely a corpse due to this than most people here

 

 

I am  aware.

But I reckon there might be others on here with health and general life issues that make them just as passionate about this shite fest as you....I am not demeaning your personal situation, I am just sayin', is all.

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9 hours ago, Rybags said:

I've not looked at the site that has the graphical representation of the world for a while but India seems to be either handling it really well or just plain underreporting.

 

I don't believe India is being truthful, they probably aren't testing the lower classes at all.

 

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Have to laugh at the muppets running the Australian government COUGH*COUGH*SNEEZE page answering questions by people about social distancing.

All they do is point people to the government web site.

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50 minutes ago, eveln said:

Which is exactly why I asked @~thehung to not expect you to speak for Dr Higgins absurd behaviour

not that i had, as was established.  my opinion is that Mikakos fucked up and so did the doctor — not necessarily in returning to work, but in waiting days for testing.  i asked for scruffy's opinion but he never answered.

 

51 minutes ago, eveln said:

Being a Dr. he doesn't automatically get to play that card IMO 

you just said this in the same breath as saying "exactly" to the assertion that doctors are humans too, with all the variation and imperfection of the whole population'. so doctors are humans but they cant play the human card?

 

not that it matters.  this all got off track after you got annoyed by scuffy's careless use of the word 'precious'. 

 

back on track: you have mused that maybe the restrictions should be loosened in your area.  i think thats a very bad idea, for reasons scruffy and others have outlined. 

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Heh,

 

Trump seems to think it is more important to keep the economy running than to save lives - seems to sort of ignore the fact that sick people can't maintain an economy...

 

The crazy thing is that there are some agreeing with him - if he wants to permanently tank the U.S. economy then ignoring the facts about the virus is a really good way to do it.

 

Cheers

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22 minutes ago, chrisg said:

Heh,

 

Trump seems to think it is more important to keep the economy running than to save lives - seems to sort of ignore the fact that sick people can't maintain an economy...

 

The crazy thing is that there are some agreeing with him - if he wants to permanently tank the U.S. economy then ignoring the facts about the virus is a really good way to do it.

 

Cheers

 

His friend Rand Paul has been busy spreading the love/virus around the senate.

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1 minute ago, Jeruselem said:

 

His friend Rand Paul has been busy spreading the love/virus around the senate.

 

Could be a useful outcome of the virus if enough of the Senate get sick...

 

Cheers

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21 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

not that i had, as was established.  my opinion is that Mikakos fucked up and so did the doctor — not necessarily in returning to work, but in waiting days for testing.  i asked for scruffy's opinion but he never answered.

 

It's all there a few pages back

 

21 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

 

you just said this in the same breath as saying "exactly" to the assertion that doctors are humans too, with all the variation and imperfection of the whole population'. so doctors are humans but they cant play the human card?

I said IMO, Dr.s don't automatically get to play that card

 

 

21 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

 

not that it matters.  this all got off track after you got annoyed by scuffy's careless use of the word 'precious'. 

Now I know with this ^^ you're trolling. 

 

21 minutes ago, @~thehung said:

 

back on track: you have mused that maybe the restrictions should be loosened in your area.  i think thats a very bad idea, for reasons scruffy and others have outlined. 

*shrugs* fine.... I think you have just as much say as I do

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All this work from home business, it's all fine and dandy ... if you're not the **** IT people who have implement it.

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10 minutes ago, eveln said:

 

It's all there a few pages back

 

I said IMO, Dr.s don't automatically get to play that card

 

 

Now I know with this ^^ you're trolling. 

 

*shrugs* fine.... I think you have just as much say as I do

 

🙂 I REALLY, REALLY wish you would understand what a Troll is...

 

I'm managing ok with IT on a remote basis thus far, might change if I have to visit anywhere 🙂

 

One of the nice things about remote management which often passes notice is that it is self-documenting, your logon/logoff times and activity are all in the records - makes invoicing a breeze  🙂

 

Cheers

 

 

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2 minutes ago, eveln said:

It's all there a few pages back

 

it sure is. 

 

6 minutes ago, eveln said:

I said IMO, Dr.s don't automatically get to play that card

 

youve offered nothing here in response to what i put to you.  buts its fine. you cant help it,

 

7 minutes ago, eveln said:

Now I know with this ^^ you're trolling.

 

because once you start getting pissy^^, you find it real hard to switch gears!  hence, you probably failed to notice that i am saying you had some grounds for taking it personally when scruffy talked about "precious petals not wanting to rope in their personal expectations" basically in response to your ideas about loosening restrictions.

 

and if you think thats trolling then

On 3/3/2020 at 12:32 PM, chrisg said:

I begin to wonder if you comprehend the definition of a troll...

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Posted (edited)

You seriously disappoint me @~thehung , but I will get over it. 

And I doubt it bothers you too much.

As scruffy1 said to me, I say to you... " stay well "

Edited by eveln

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